Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 41%
6 arb excluded
$22.2K
$3.5K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 37 top traders (41%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 0x82aa...2777 | Downavg 61.2¢ | $8.7K | $14.1K | +$5.5K | — |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Downavg 69¢ | $1.6K | $2.3K | +$713.7 | 7% 35-458 (493) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.8 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$112.03 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23¢ | $230.19 | $1.0K | +$771.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.6¢ | $883.3 | — | -$883.3 | |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $703.02 | $777.58 | +$74.57 | 29% 158-394 (552) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $507.54 | $475.44 | -$32.1 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.6¢ | $116.89 | $475.44 | +$358.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65¢ | $390.65 | — | -$390.65 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $517.84 | $488 | +$4.88 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $240.94 | $488 | +$246.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $248.52 | — | -$241.33 | |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 71.4¢ | $436.41 | — | -$418.32 | 58% 4932-3605 (8537) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $307.38 | $226.5 | -$80.88 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.6¢ | $87.54 | $226.5 | +$138.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.1¢ | $219.84 | — | -$219.84 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $272.05 | $286.19 | +$14.14 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 52.7¢ | $750.42 | — | -$699.12 | 50% 467-468 (935) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 59.4¢ | $935.28 | — | -$299.03 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $176.82 | $184.97 | +$8.15 | 49% 851-879 (1730) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.3¢ | $48.68 | $184.97 | +$136.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.3¢ | $128.14 | — | -$128.14 | |
 ohioism | Downavg 37.6¢ | $66.07 | $175.85 | +$109.78 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 54.8¢ | $153.7 | $171.68 | +$17.99 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
 gabigolCTR | Upavg 38.7¢ | $210.73 | — | -$210.73 | 49% 247-259 (506) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Downavg 83¢ | $118.83 | $143.13 | +$24.3 | 56% 75-58 (133) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 37.8¢ | $122.32 | $80 | -$42.32 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.8¢ | $99.61 | — | -$99.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.4¢ | $22.71 | $80 | +$57.29 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 61¢ | $261.56 | — | -$261.56 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $158.45 | — | -$158.45 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 41.3¢ | $49.6 | $120 | +$70.4 | 65% 1898-1040 (2938) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $61.16 | — | -$61.16 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $70.22 | $73 | +$2.78 | 52% 793-743 (1536) |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Upavg 69.9¢ | $124.58 | — | -$98.78 | 57% 213-160 (373) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 26.6¢ | $39.35 | $85 | +$45.65 | 47% 2004-2262 (4266) |
Invested
$8,660.6
Value
$14.1K
PnL
+$5.5K
Record
—
Invested
$1,591.9
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$713.7
Record
7%
35-458 (493)
Invested
$1,320.14
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.8
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
Invested
$1,113.49
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$112.03
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Both legs:
Invested
$703.02
Value
$777.58
PnL
+$74.57
Record
29%
158-394 (552)
Invested
$507.54
Value
$475.44
PnL
-$32.1
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Both legs:
Invested
$517.84
Value
$488
PnL
+$4.88
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
Invested
$436.41
Value
—
PnL
-$418.32
Record
58%
4932-3605 (8537)
Invested
$307.38
Value
$226.5
PnL
-$80.88
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Both legs:
Invested
$272.05
Value
$286.19
PnL
+$14.14
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$750.42
Value
—
PnL
-$699.12
Record
50%
467-468 (935)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$935.28
Value
—
PnL
-$299.03
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$176.82
Value
$184.97
PnL
+$8.15
Record
49%
851-879 (1730)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$66.07
Value
$175.85
PnL
+$109.78
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$153.7
Value
$171.68
PnL
+$17.99
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
gabigolCTRInvested
$210.73
Value
—
PnL
-$210.73
Record
49%
247-259 (506)
Invested
$118.83
Value
$143.13
PnL
+$24.3
Record
56%
75-58 (133)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$122.32
Value
$80
PnL
-$42.32
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Both legs:
Invested
$261.56
Value
—
PnL
-$261.56
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$158.45
Value
—
PnL
-$158.45
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$49.6
Value
$120
PnL
+$70.4
Record
65%
1898-1040 (2938)
Invested
$61.16
Value
—
PnL
-$61.16
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$70.22
Value
$73
PnL
+$2.78
Record
52%
793-743 (1536)
Invested
$124.58
Value
—
PnL
-$98.78
Record
57%
213-160 (373)
Invested
$39.35
Value
$85
PnL
+$45.65
Record
47%
2004-2262 (4266)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x82aa...2777
Down — $14.1K
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Down — $2.3K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm4
Down — $777.58
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $286.19