Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 70%
5 arb excluded
$6.1K
-$688.46
Smart Money Signal
21 of 30 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.49 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $689.23 | $696.19 | +$6.96 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.8¢ | $624.18 | $701.8 | +$77.62 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 78.7¢ | $657.19 | $654.53 | -$2.66 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 75.6¢ | $537.38 | $542.14 | +$4.76 | 58% 4932-3605 (8537) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.88 | — | -$497.75 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
BO bosona | Downavg 86.7¢ | $773.93 | $385.99 | -$46.18 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $237.57 | $221.98 | -$15.59 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.7¢ | $181.25 | $221.98 | +$40.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.9¢ | $56.32 | — | -$56.32 | |
AL almach | Downavg 84¢ | $304.91 | $250 | +$51.41 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $221.37 | $174.4 | -$46.97 | 50% 467-468 (935) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.8¢ | $154.86 | $174.4 | +$19.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.5¢ | $66.5 | — | -$66.5 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86¢ | $168.56 | $196 | +$27.44 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 99¢ | $148.5 | $150 | +$1.5 | 42% 269-379 (648) |
 gabigolARB<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $145.55 | $151.39 | +$5.85 | 49% 247-259 (506) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.8¢ | $122.31 | $151.39 | +$29.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.3¢ | $23.24 | — | -$23.24 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $129 | $120 | -$9 | 49% 851-879 (1730) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86.5¢ | $103.8 | $120 | +$16.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21¢ | $25.2 | — | -$25.2 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $100 | — | -$100 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $92.25 | $95.63 | +$3.38 | 34% 66-126 (192) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 82.2¢ | $88.25 | $107.37 | +$19.12 | 57% 213-160 (373) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $79.16 | $83 | +$3.84 | 26% 440-1221 (1661) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Downavg 87.7¢ | $169.55 | $50.37 | -$41.73 | 60% 3496-2347 (5843) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.7¢ | $44.17 | $50.37 | -$2.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.5¢ | $29.72 | — | -$39.39 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $62.07 | $57.79 | -$4.28 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $38.83 | $38.21 | -$0.62 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $23.89 | $32.96 | +$9.07 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.9¢ | $34.05 | — | -$34.05 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $24.5 | $25.69 | +$1.19 | 26% 268-776 (1044) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.5¢ | $32.37 | — | -$32.37 | 47% 1960-2212 (4172) |
BoneOhioInvested
$1,313.23
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.49
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$689.23
Value
$696.19
PnL
+$6.96
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$624.18
Value
$701.8
PnL
+$77.62
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$657.19
Value
$654.53
PnL
-$2.66
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$537.38
Value
$542.14
PnL
+$4.76
Record
58%
4932-3605 (8537)
Invested
$504.88
Value
—
PnL
-$497.75
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$773.93
Value
$385.99
PnL
-$46.18
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$237.57
Value
$221.98
PnL
-$15.59
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Both legs:
Invested
$304.91
Value
$250
PnL
+$51.41
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$221.37
Value
$174.4
PnL
-$46.97
Record
50%
467-468 (935)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.56
Value
$196
PnL
+$27.44
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$148.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$1.5
Record
42%
269-379 (648)
gabigolARB<$100Invested
$145.55
Value
$151.39
PnL
+$5.85
Record
49%
247-259 (506)
Both legs:
Invested
$129
Value
$120
PnL
-$9
Record
49%
851-879 (1730)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$100
Value
—
PnL
-$100
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$92.25
Value
$95.63
PnL
+$3.38
Record
34%
66-126 (192)
Invested
$88.25
Value
$107.37
PnL
+$19.12
Record
57%
213-160 (373)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$79.16
Value
$83
PnL
+$3.84
Record
26%
440-1221 (1661)
Invested
$169.55
Value
$50.37
PnL
-$41.73
Record
60%
3496-2347 (5843)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.07
Value
$57.79
PnL
-$4.28
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$38.83
Value
$38.21
PnL
-$0.62
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$23.89
Value
$32.96
PnL
+$9.07
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$34.05
Value
—
PnL
-$34.05
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$24.5
Value
$25.69
PnL
+$1.19
Record
26%
268-776 (1044)
Invested
$32.37
Value
—
PnL
-$32.37
Record
47%
1960-2212 (4172)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $1.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $696.19
CrouchPredictions
Down — $701.8
stepahead
Down — $654.53
Hcrystallash
Down — $542.14
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $385.99
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $250
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded