Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

-$661.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 38 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares11,526

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,134

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.16	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 69.1¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$538.2	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 57.8¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
ST stepahead	Downavg 50.8¢	$884.16	$1.0K	+$155.74	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
AL almach	Downavg 66.9¢	$638.32	$906.45	+$268.13	50% 1296-1286 (2582)
BO bosona	Downavg 69.1¢	$783.42	$866.36	+$82.94	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
MO mo-money	Downavg 67.3¢	$562.02	$791.65	+$229.63	49% 1282-1313 (2595)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 95.5¢	$749.24	$784.61	+$35.37	42% 269-378 (647)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 52.7¢	$595.73	$720	+$124.27	46% 931-1078 (2009)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$531.7	$500.13	+$8.58	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$248.93	$500.13	+$254.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$248.04	—	-$245.9
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 44.9¢	$402.33	—	-$327.59	58% 4924-3594 (8518)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$329.67	$333	+$3.33	98% 3371-72 (3443)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 57.3¢	$306.22	$300.95	+$0.62	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$278.58	$315.15	+$36.57	49% 849-874 (1723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$165.29	$315.15	+$149.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$113.29	—	-$113.29
NIULAI4	Downavg 89.9¢	$192.76	$214.44	+$21.68	26% 433-1215 (1648)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 49.9¢	$373.57	$204	+$10.77	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
gabigol	Downavg 52¢	$144.81	$278.62	+$133.81	49% 244-257 (501)
FL flippingsharks	Downavg 58¢	$160.53	$192.71	+$32.18	38% 584-952 (1536)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 52.3¢	$182.26	—	-$178.77	50% 461-464 (925)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 88.6¢	$123	$138.76	+$15.76	34% 65-124 (189)
ohioism	Downavg 36.8¢	$42.35	$115	+$72.65	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 47.7¢	$72.99	$104.93	+$60.64	44% 1915-2467 (4382)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$92.3	—	-$92.3	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 45¢	$60.7	$100	+$59.8	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 55.8¢	$122.37	$95	+$11.18	58% 205-151 (356)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,193.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.16

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,203.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$538.2

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$1,768.11

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$884.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$155.74

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

almach

Down

Invested

$638.32

Value

$906.45

PnL

+$268.13

Record

50%

1296-1286 (2582)

bosona

Down

Invested

$783.42

Value

$866.36

PnL

+$82.94

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$562.02

Value

$791.65

PnL

+$229.63

Record

49%

1282-1313 (2595)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$749.24

Value

$784.61

PnL

+$35.37

Record

42%

269-378 (647)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$595.73

Value

$720

PnL

+$124.27

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$531.7

Value

$500.13

PnL

+$8.58

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Down$248.9349.8¢+$254.48

Up$248.0449.6¢-$245.9

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$402.33

Value

—

PnL

-$327.59

Record

58%

4924-3594 (8518)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$329.67

Value

$333

PnL

+$3.33

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$306.22

Value

$300.95

PnL

+$0.62

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$278.58

Value

$315.15

PnL

+$36.57

Record

49%

849-874 (1723)

Both legs:

Down$165.2952.4¢+$149.86

Up$113.2945.4¢-$113.29

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$192.76

Value

$214.44

PnL

+$21.68

Record

26%

433-1215 (1648)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$373.57

Value

$204

PnL

+$10.77

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

gabigol

Down

Invested

$144.81

Value

$278.62

PnL

+$133.81

Record

49%

244-257 (501)

flippingsharks

Down

Invested

$160.53

Value

$192.71

PnL

+$32.18

Record

38%

584-952 (1536)

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$182.26

Value

—

PnL

-$178.77

Record

50%

461-464 (925)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$123

Value

$138.76

PnL

+$15.76

Record

34%

65-124 (189)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$42.35

Value

$115

PnL

+$72.65

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$72.99

Value

$104.93

PnL

+$60.64

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$92.3

Value

—

PnL

-$92.3

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$60.7

Value

$100

PnL

+$59.8

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$122.37

Value

$95

PnL

+$11.18

Record

58%

205-151 (356)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 38 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc01fd803...98b417

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794654900

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.2K

+$22.16

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.7K

+$538.2

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.8K

stepahead

Down — $1.0K

+$155.74

almach

Down — $906.45

+$268.13

bosona

Down — $866.36

+$82.94

mo-money

Down — $791.65

+$229.63

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $784.61

+$35.37

CrouchPredictions

Down — $720

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded