Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$458.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 36 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,460

Combined PnL+$438.08

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,746

Combined PnL-$896.65

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$4.63	51% 1297-1233 (2530)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 58.2¢	$875.58	$1.1K	+$249.37	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.8¢	$761.49	$853.95	+$92.46	46% 931-1078 (2009)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$518.65	$493.18	-$2.98	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$249.14	$493.18	+$246.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$245.48	—	-$249.72
ST stepahead	Downavg 75.1¢	$426.59	$438.14	+$11.55	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.1¢	$400.53	$408.39	+$7.87	98% 3371-72 (3443)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$387.51	$456.94	+$69.43	50% 461-464 (925)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$186.63	$456.94	+$270.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.3¢	$200.89	—	-$200.89
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 92.6¢	$335.67	$362.67	+$27	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.3¢	$303.21	$311.51	+$8.31	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
BO bosona	Downavg 97.7¢	$383.59	$308.74	-$58.58	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 27.4¢	$432.31	—	-$347.39	58% 4924-3594 (8518)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 77.2¢	$204.34	$204.16	-$0.18	49% 849-874 (1723)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$140.11	$151.95	+$11.84	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$95	$151.95	+$56.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.9¢	$45.11	—	-$45.11
BL blue.birds	Downavg 75.3¢	$119.7	$120	+$0.3	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 23¢	$176.29	—	-$151.65	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 74.6¢	$140.14	$129.91	+$11.92	58% 205-151 (356)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 93.4¢	$92.46	$99	+$6.54	26% 433-1215 (1648)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 93.4¢	$85.5	$91.49	+$5.99	34% 65-124 (189)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$72.17	$77.69	+$11.78	60% 3476-2322 (5798)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$50.35	$40	-$10.35	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.3¢	$25.05	—	-$25.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$25.3	$40	+$14.7
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$51.04	$62.78	+$11.74	49% 1282-1313 (2595)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$44.58	$65	+$20.42	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$48.49	$56.2	+$7.71	52% 2477-2289 (4766)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$38.83	—	-$38.83	38% 584-952 (1536)
gabigol<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$20.77	$25.67	+$4.9	49% 244-257 (501)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,627.15

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$4.63

Record

51%

1297-1233 (2530)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$875.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$249.37

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$761.49

Value

$853.95

PnL

+$92.46

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$518.65

Value

$493.18

PnL

-$2.98

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Down$249.1450.5¢+$246.73

Up$245.4848.7¢-$249.72

stepahead

Down

Invested

$426.59

Value

$438.14

PnL

+$11.55

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$400.53

Value

$408.39

PnL

+$7.87

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$387.51

Value

$456.94

PnL

+$69.43

Record

50%

461-464 (925)

Both legs:

Down$186.6340.8¢+$270.32

Up$200.8965.3¢-$200.89

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$335.67

Value

$362.67

PnL

+$27

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$303.21

Value

$311.51

PnL

+$8.31

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

bosona

Down

Invested

$383.59

Value

$308.74

PnL

-$58.58

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$432.31

Value

—

PnL

-$347.39

Record

58%

4924-3594 (8518)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$204.34

Value

$204.16

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

849-874 (1723)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$140.11

Value

$151.95

PnL

+$11.84

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

Both legs:

Invested

$119.7

Value

$120

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$176.29

Value

—

PnL

-$151.65

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$140.14

Value

$129.91

PnL

+$11.92

Record

58%

205-151 (356)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$92.46

Value

$99

PnL

+$6.54

Record

26%

433-1215 (1648)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$85.5

Value

$91.49

PnL

+$5.99

Record

34%

65-124 (189)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$72.17

Value

$77.69

PnL

+$11.78

Record

60%

3476-2322 (5798)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$50.35

Value

$40

PnL

-$10.35

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

Both legs:

Invested

$51.04

Value

$62.78

PnL

+$11.74

Record

49%

1282-1313 (2595)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$44.58

Value

$65

PnL

+$20.42

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$48.49

Value

$56.2

PnL

+$7.71

Record

52%

2477-2289 (4766)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$38.83

Value

—

PnL

-$38.83

Record

38%

584-952 (1536)

gabigol<$100

Down

Invested

$20.77

Value

$25.67

PnL

+$4.9

Record

49%

244-257 (501)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 36 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9bfaede2...5bac4e

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794654000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $4.6K

+$4.63

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.1K

+$249.37

CrouchPredictions

Down — $853.95

+$92.46

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.98

stepahead

Down — $438.14

+$11.55

hoodquant

Down — $408.39

+$7.87

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$69.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $362.67

+$27

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $311.51

+$8.31

bosona

Down — $308.74

-$58.58

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