Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 35 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,394

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Up21 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,011

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 58.5¢	$4.3K	—	$-4.1K	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
ST stepahead	Upavg 51.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$31.02	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$146.11	46% 931-1078 (2009)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.27	98% 3371-72 (3443)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 56.9¢	$749.74	$1.0K	+$313.79	42% 269-378 (647)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$561.37	—	-$555.94	58% 4924-3594 (8518)
NIULAI4	Upavg 82¢	$500.87	$611	+$110.13	26% 433-1215 (1648)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 83.3¢	$455.25	$546.53	+$91.28	34% 65-124 (189)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$565.84	$493	+$16.86	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$245.27	—	-$239.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$240.76	$493	+$255.87
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$486.66	$413.83	-$72.83	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$264.93	—	-$264.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$221.72	$413.83	+$192.11
MO mo-money	Upavg 62¢	$431.88	$428.82	-$3.05	49% 1282-1313 (2595)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 57.2¢	$338.64	$362.95	+$34.32	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 42.4¢	$310.92	$354.11	+$64.25	50% 461-464 (925)
BO bosona	Upavg 43.6¢	$120.64	$272.88	+$152.24	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$231.08	$263.13	+$32.04	49% 849-874 (1723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$138.01	—	-$138.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$93.07	$263.13	+$170.06
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$374.04	$210	-$6.69	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$115.36	—	-$122.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$97.67	$210	+$115.4
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 42.6¢	$161.85	$210	+$48.15	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
Atomforge	Upavg 82.1¢	$125.44	$152.73	+$27.29	26% 267-775 (1042)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 53.1¢	$151.72	—	-$151.72	47% 1950-2185 (4135)
AL almach	Upavg 60.6¢	$302.16	$137.96	-$36.78	50% 1296-1286 (2582)
gabigolCTR	Downavg 74.1¢	$147.85	—	-$147.85	49% 244-257 (501)
ohioism	Upavg 42.5¢	$95.81	$120.58	+$24.77	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$234.17	$49.43	-$76.49	58% 205-151 (356)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$84.68	—	-$84.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$30.21	$49.43	+$7.85
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$95.89	—	-$67.89	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 50.4¢	$68.2	$105	+$36.8	44% 1915-2467 (4382)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$4,288.14

Value

—

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

stepahead

Invested

$1,228.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$31.02

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,097.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$146.11

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,016.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.27

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$749.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$313.79

Record

42%

269-378 (647)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$561.37

Value

—

PnL

-$555.94

Record

58%

4924-3594 (8518)

NIULAI4

Invested

$500.87

Value

$611

PnL

+$110.13

Record

26%

433-1215 (1648)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$455.25

Value

$546.53

PnL

+$91.28

Record

34%

65-124 (189)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$565.84

Value

$493

PnL

+$16.86

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Down$245.2749.8¢-$239.01

Up$240.7648.8¢+$255.87

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$486.66

Value

$413.83

PnL

-$72.83

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

Both legs:

Down$264.9356.2¢-$264.93

Up$221.7253.6¢+$192.11

mo-money

Invested

$431.88

Value

$428.82

PnL

-$3.05

Record

49%

1282-1313 (2595)

asdcaxz

Invested

$338.64

Value

$362.95

PnL

+$34.32

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$310.92

Value

$354.11

PnL

+$64.25

Record

50%

461-464 (925)

bosona

Invested

$120.64

Value

$272.88

PnL

+$152.24

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.08

Value

$263.13

PnL

+$32.04

Record

49%

849-874 (1723)

Both legs:

Down$138.0153.7¢-$138.01

Up$93.0735.4¢+$170.06

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$374.04

Value

$210

PnL

-$6.69

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

Both legs:

Down$115.3654.7¢-$122.08

Up$97.6746.5¢+$115.4

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$161.85

Value

$210

PnL

+$48.15

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

Atomforge

Invested

$125.44

Value

$152.73

PnL

+$27.29

Record

26%

267-775 (1042)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$151.72

Value

—

PnL

-$151.72

Record

47%

1950-2185 (4135)

almach

Invested

$302.16

Value

$137.96

PnL

-$36.78

Record

50%

1296-1286 (2582)

gabigolCTR

Down

Invested

$147.85

Value

—

PnL

-$147.85

Record

49%

244-257 (501)

ohioism

Invested

$95.81

Value

$120.58

PnL

+$24.77

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

Alpharo28ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$234.17

Value

$49.43

PnL

-$76.49

Record

58%

205-151 (356)

Both legs:

Down$84.6864.1¢-$84.34

Up$30.2161.1¢+$7.85

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$95.89

Value

—

PnL

-$67.89

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$68.2

Value

$105

PnL

+$36.8

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 35 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x642505d4...7a1b3a

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794653100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.1K

stepahead

Up — $1.3K

+$31.02

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.2K

+$146.11

hoodquant

Up — $1.0K

+$10.27

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $1.0K

+$313.79

Hcrystallash

CTR

Down — $0

-$555.94

NIULAI4

Up — $611

+$110.13

asabovesobelow2

Up — $546.53

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded