Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

21 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Up (66%) · Up at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$133.42

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares12,106

Combined PnL+$622.56

Down11 traders

Total Value$263.64

Total Shares2,231

Combined PnL-$489.15

Up — 66%Down — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69.5¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$119.09	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$37.75	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.63	98% 3348-72 (3420)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 71¢	$984.51	$1.4K	+$401.43	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 61.4¢	$602.28	$651.46	+$49.97	46% 927-1068 (1995)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$539.51	$500.26	+$3.37	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$248.83	$304.43	+$59.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$251.41	$195.84	-$56.46
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 49.6¢	$442.28	$492.93	+$50.65	50% 460-459 (919)
MO mo-money	Upavg 75¢	$353.41	$353.91	+$30.37	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
ST stepahead	Upavg 55.1¢	$353.07	$353.33	+$0.26	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 57.5¢	$300.42	$303.33	+$2.91	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
BO bosona	Upavg 43¢	$110	$250	+$140	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 52.2¢	$155.49	$175.88	+$20.39	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 34.9¢	$407.24	$157.35	-$197.95	58% 4921-3591 (8512)
ohioism	Upavg 88.1¢	$132.95	$150.85	+$17.9	48% 1918-2109 (4027)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 55.7¢	$145.56	$148.26	+$2.7	49% 847-871 (1718)
AL almach	Upavg 58.2¢	$120.32	$135	+$17.56	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
gabigol	Upavg 93.3¢	$127.51	$134.71	+$7.2	49% 242-256 (498)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 58.3¢	$126.1	$123.4	-$2.7	47% 1977-2239 (4216)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 61.1¢	$108.38	$107.41	-$0.96	44% 1903-2453 (4356)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$109.6	$82.34	+$34.49	60% 3454-2312 (5766)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.7¢	$36.72	$59.61	+$22.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.9¢	$20.13	$22.74	+$11.61
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$128.72	$72.69	-$44.66	57% 198-147 (345)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$31.16	$37.07	+$2.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$78.92	$35.63	-$47.52
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$65.13	$51.1	-$14.03	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$44.6	$44.75	+$0.15	47% 1944-2175 (4119)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$50.48	$40.28	-$10.2	58% 124-91 (215)
PL ply-pm4<$100	Upavg 52¢	$20.8	$39.98	+$19.18	28% 154-391 (545)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,409.91

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$119.09

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$2,008.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$37.75

Record

50%

1753-1753 (3506)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,581.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.63

Record

98%

3348-72 (3420)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$984.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$401.43

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$602.28

Value

$651.46

PnL

+$49.97

Record

46%

927-1068 (1995)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$539.51

Value

$500.26

PnL

+$3.37

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Up$248.8350.3¢+$59.82

Down$251.4149.4¢-$56.46

aswfadq1555

Invested

$442.28

Value

$492.93

PnL

+$50.65

Record

50%

460-459 (919)

mo-money

Invested

$353.41

Value

$353.91

PnL

+$30.37

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

stepahead

Invested

$353.07

Value

$353.33

PnL

+$0.26

Record

55%

4306-3538 (7844)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$300.42

Value

$303.33

PnL

+$2.91

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

bosona

Invested

$110

Value

$250

PnL

+$140

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

asdcaxz

Invested

$155.49

Value

$175.88

PnL

+$20.39

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$407.24

Value

$157.35

PnL

-$197.95

Record

58%

4921-3591 (8512)

ohioism

Invested

$132.95

Value

$150.85

PnL

+$17.9

Record

48%

1918-2109 (4027)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$145.56

Value

$148.26

PnL

+$2.7

Record

49%

847-871 (1718)

almach

Invested

$120.32

Value

$135

PnL

+$17.56

Record

50%

1286-1280 (2566)

gabigol

Invested

$127.51

Value

$134.71

PnL

+$7.2

Record

49%

242-256 (498)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$126.1

Value

$123.4

PnL

-$2.7

Record

47%

1977-2239 (4216)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$108.38

Value

$107.41

PnL

-$0.96

Record

44%

1903-2453 (4356)

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$109.6

Value

$82.34

PnL

+$34.49

Record

60%

3454-2312 (5766)

Both legs:

Down$36.7236.7¢+$22.89

Up$20.1335.9¢+$11.61

Alpharo28ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.72

Value

$72.69

PnL

-$44.66

Record

57%

198-147 (345)

Both legs:

Up$31.1660.1¢+$2.86

Down$78.9263.1¢-$47.52

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$65.13

Value

$51.1

PnL

-$14.03

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$44.6

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

1944-2175 (4119)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.48

Value

$40.28

PnL

-$10.2

Record

58%

124-91 (215)

ply-pm4<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$19.18

Record

28%

154-391 (545)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.