Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

-$708.77

Smart Money Signal

24 of 39 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,141

Combined PnL+$698.78

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,713

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 57¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$60.62	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
ST stepahead	Upavg 76.4¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$193.65	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 58.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$292.68	46% 927-1068 (1995)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.52	98% 3348-72 (3420)
NIULAI4	Upavg 78.9¢	$861.43	$895.94	+$43.12	26% 429-1212 (1641)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 78.2¢	$880.43	$845.11	-$29.41	35% 65-123 (188)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 68.8¢	$739.07	$680.61	-$36.93	58% 4921-3591 (8512)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 50¢	$316	$632.62	+$316.62	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 61¢	$577.6	$533.58	+$17.16	50% 460-459 (919)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$565.96	$495.36	+$11.93	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$250.4	$495.36	+$253.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$239.68	—	-$241.49
AL almach	Upavg 81.7¢	$901.86	$560.53	+$47.54	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 67.1¢	$360.05	$395.79	+$60.86	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$281.8	$278.31	-$3.49	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$163.52	$278.31	+$114.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$118.28	—	-$118.28
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$321.26	$171.21	-$150.05	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.9¢	$145.42	$171.21	+$25.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$175.84	—	-$175.84
Atomforge	Upavg 76.9¢	$315.56	$216.55	-$92.91	26% 267-775 (1042)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 76.1¢	$219.11	$215	-$4.12	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 57.3¢	$188.43	$176.66	+$35.74	57% 198-147 (345)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 31.3¢	$134.02	$86.29	-$47.73	48% 1918-2109 (4027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.3¢	$75.71	—	-$75.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$58.31	$86.29	+$27.98
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 43.1¢	$135.82	—	-$135.82	49% 847-871 (1718)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49.7¢	$103.3	$208	+$104.7	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 40.9¢	$215.66	—	-$215.66	47% 1977-2239 (4216)
PL ply-pm4<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$62.36	$82.3	+$41.09	28% 154-391 (545)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$120.87	$50	-$70.87	47% 1944-2175 (4119)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$85.87	—	-$85.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$35	$50	+$15
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 47.4¢	$330.8	—	-$282.95	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$52.18	$65.97	+$13.8	65% 1894-1039 (2933)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$2,729.66

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$60.62

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

Both legs:

Up$1,522.1957¢+$1.1K

Down$1,207.4750.9¢$-1.2K

stepahead

Invested

$2,089.19

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$193.65

Record

55%

4306-3538 (7844)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,060.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$292.68

Record

46%

927-1068 (1995)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,125.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.52

Record

98%

3348-72 (3420)

NIULAI4

Invested

$861.43

Value

$895.94

PnL

+$43.12

Record

26%

429-1212 (1641)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$880.43

Value

$845.11

PnL

-$29.41

Record

35%

65-123 (188)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$739.07

Value

$680.61

PnL

-$36.93

Record

58%

4921-3591 (8512)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$316

Value

$632.62

PnL

+$316.62

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$577.6

Value

$533.58

PnL

+$17.16

Record

50%

460-459 (919)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$565.96

Value

$495.36

PnL

+$11.93

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Up$250.450.5¢+$253.42

Down$239.6848.3¢-$241.49

almach

Invested

$901.86

Value

$560.53

PnL

+$47.54

Record

50%

1286-1280 (2566)

asdcaxz

Invested

$360.05

Value

$395.79

PnL

+$60.86

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$281.8

Value

$278.31

PnL

-$3.49

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

Both legs:

Up$163.5258.8¢+$114.79

Down$118.2842.1¢-$118.28

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$321.26

Value

$171.21

PnL

-$150.05

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

Both legs:

Up$145.4284.9¢+$25.79

Down$175.8442.8¢-$175.84

Atomforge

Invested

$315.56

Value

$216.55

PnL

-$92.91

Record

26%

267-775 (1042)

blue.birds

Invested

$219.11

Value

$215

PnL

-$4.12

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

Alpharo28

Invested

$188.43

Value

$176.66

PnL

+$35.74

Record

57%

198-147 (345)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$134.02

Value

$86.29

PnL

-$47.73

Record

48%

1918-2109 (4027)

Both legs:

Down$75.7131.3¢-$75.71

Up$58.3167.6¢+$27.98

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Down

Invested

$135.82

Value

—

PnL

-$135.82

Record

49%

847-871 (1718)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$103.3

Value

$208

PnL

+$104.7

Record

50%

1753-1753 (3506)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$215.66

Value

—

PnL

-$215.66

Record

47%

1977-2239 (4216)

ply-pm4<$100

Invested

$62.36

Value

$82.3

PnL

+$41.09

Record

28%

154-391 (545)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.87

Value

$50

PnL

-$70.87

Record

47%

1944-2175 (4119)

Both legs:

Down$85.8753.3¢-$85.87

Up$3570¢+$15

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$330.8

Value

—

PnL

-$282.95

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$52.18

Value

$65.97

PnL

+$13.8

Record

65%

1894-1039 (2933)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 39 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbbc2888b...2d8228

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794651300

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$60.62

stepahead

Up — $1.9K

-$193.65

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.4K

+$292.68

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$14.52

NIULAI4

Up — $895.94

+$43.12

asabovesobelow2

Up — $845.11

-$29.41

Hcrystallash

Up — $680.61

-$36.93

uninformedfloww

Up — $632.62

+$316.62

aswfadq1555

Up — $533.58

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded