Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (62%) · Up at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up69¢Down31¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$11.32

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up69%

Down32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,249

Combined PnL-$14.6

Down8 traders

Total Value$97.76

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$3.27

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 72.7¢	$785.92	$782.59	-$3.33	51% 2914-2831 (5745)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$218.25	$218.31	+$0.07	58% 4914-3586 (8500)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$152.34	$162.56	+$10.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.2¢	$65.91	$55.76	-$10.15
BO bosona	Upavg 72¢	$180	$176.25	-$3.75	51% 4524-4391 (8915)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$176.28	$165.46	-$10.81	55% 4299-3527 (7826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.5¢	$123.08	$117.91	-$5.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.2¢	$53.2	$47.56	-$5.65
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 27.6¢	$165.37	$151.64	+$4.7	47% 921-1056 (1977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.6¢	$89.09	$92.05	+$2.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.3¢	$60.23	$59.59	+$1.74
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 73.2¢	$120.19	$121.45	+$1.26	50% 457-452 (909)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$70.89	$68.05	-$2.84	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$89.46	$63.9	-$16.56	58% 193-138 (331)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$32.5	$36.25	+$3.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$47.51	$27.65	-$20.31
gabigol<$100	Upavg 80¢	$45.14	$44.27	-$0.87	49% 240-254 (494)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$41.25	$42.81	+$1.56	48% 164-175 (339)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 83¢	$43.27	$36.72	-$6.55	60% 3418-2292 (5710)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$26.2	$27.43	+$1.23	52% 1693-1534 (3227)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$17.5	$17.75	+$0.25	50% 1276-1266 (2542)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$14.4	$14.85	+$0.45	50% 705-716 (1421)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$10.27	$13.35	+$3.08	46% 2530-3008 (5538)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 59¢	$10.62	$10.89	+$0.27	50% 1731-1732 (3463)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$9.2	$9.8	+$0.6	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 71¢	$8.54	$8.48	-$0.06	44% 1886-2437 (4323)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 78¢	$7.47	$7.33	-$0.14	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$9.66	$6.67	-$2.99	49% 845-866 (1711)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 32.3¢	$4.85	$5.48	+$0.63	65% 1891-1037 (2928)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.57	-$0.08	47% 1965-2218 (4183)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.23	-$0.07	48% 1903-2089 (3992)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.03	41% 1439-2039 (3478)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$785.92

Value

$782.59

PnL

-$3.33

Record

51%

2914-2831 (5745)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$218.25

Value

$218.31

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

4914-3586 (8500)

Both legs:

Up$152.3464.2¢+$10.22

Down$65.9137.2¢-$10.15

bosona

Invested

$180

Value

$176.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

51%

4524-4391 (8915)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$176.28

Value

$165.46

PnL

-$10.81

Record

55%

4299-3527 (7826)

Both legs:

Up$123.0871.5¢-$5.17

Down$53.235.2¢-$5.65

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$165.37

Value

$151.64

PnL

+$4.7

Record

47%

921-1056 (1977)

Both legs:

Down$89.0927.6¢+$2.96

Up$60.2372.3¢+$1.74

aswfadq1555

Invested

$120.19

Value

$121.45

PnL

+$1.26

Record

50%

457-452 (909)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$70.89

Value

$68.05

PnL

-$2.84

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

Alpharo28ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.46

Value

$63.9

PnL

-$16.56

Record

58%

193-138 (331)

Both legs:

Up$32.565¢+$3.75

Down$47.5147.3¢-$20.31

gabigol<$100

Invested

$45.14

Value

$44.27

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

240-254 (494)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$41.25

Value

$42.81

PnL

+$1.56

Record

48%

164-175 (339)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$43.27

Value

$36.72

PnL

-$6.55

Record

60%

3418-2292 (5710)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.2

Value

$27.43

PnL

+$1.23

Record

52%

1693-1534 (3227)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.5

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

1276-1266 (2542)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

705-716 (1421)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.27

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$3.08

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$10.62

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$0.06

Record

44%

1886-2437 (4323)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$7.47

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.66

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$2.99

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.63

Record

65%

1891-1037 (2928)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

1965-2218 (4183)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

1903-2089 (3992)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

1439-2039 (3478)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.