Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 38%
2 arb excluded
$4.1K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 24 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$124.01 | 51% 2914-2831 (5745) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$17.39 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $504.7 | $497.36 | -$5.94 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $248.68 | $497.36 | +$248.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $254.7 | — | -$254.7 | |
AL almach | Upavg 98.7¢ | $398.4 | $276.65 | -$121.75 | 50% 1276-1266 (2542) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $158.1 | $131.63 | -$26.48 | 58% 4914-3586 (8500) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $70.43 | $131.63 | +$61.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.7¢ | $87.67 | — | -$87.67 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 85.1¢ | $97.36 | $80 | -$12.53 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 46¢ | $271.21 | — | -$271.21 | 50% 1265-1289 (2554) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 41.4¢ | $116.73 | — | -$116.73 | 55% 4299-3527 (7826) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $81.05 | $60 | -$21.05 | 49% 845-866 (1711) |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Downavg 45.4¢ | $101.34 | — | -$101.34 | 58% 193-138 (331) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 89.6¢ | $40.03 | $32.78 | -$7.25 | 51% 4524-4391 (8915) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $27.66 | — | -$27.66 | 38% 580-937 (1517) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $28.5 | $50 | +$21.5 | 50% 1731-1732 (3463) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $22.94 | $44.98 | +$22.04 | 50% 705-716 (1421) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 46.8¢ | $185.29 | — | -$185.29 | 47% 921-1056 (1977) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.5¢ | $20.41 | — | -$20.41 | 52% 2446-2260 (4706) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $13.5 | — | -$13.5 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 19.1¢ | $92.59 | — | -$92.59 | 50% 457-452 (909) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $10.22 | — | -$10.22 | 52% 1693-1534 (3227) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 26.7¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 47% 1965-2218 (4183) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $7.5 | — | -$7.5 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $9.81 | — | -$9.81 | 60% 3418-2292 (5710) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $3.36 | $6 | +$2.64 | 41% 1439-2039 (3478) |
 gabigolCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.3¢ | $5.34 | — | -$5.34 | 49% 240-254 (494) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.5¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 48% 1131-1211 (2342) |
Invested
$1,316.03
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$124.01
Record
51%
2914-2831 (5745)
Invested
$1,424.93
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$17.39
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
Invested
$504.7
Value
$497.36
PnL
-$5.94
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Both legs:
Invested
$398.4
Value
$276.65
PnL
-$121.75
Record
50%
1276-1266 (2542)
Invested
$158.1
Value
$131.63
PnL
-$26.48
Record
58%
4914-3586 (8500)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$97.36
Value
$80
PnL
-$12.53
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$271.21
Value
—
PnL
-$271.21
Record
50%
1265-1289 (2554)
Invested
$116.73
Value
—
PnL
-$116.73
Record
55%
4299-3527 (7826)
Invested
$81.05
Value
$60
PnL
-$21.05
Record
49%
845-866 (1711)
Invested
$101.34
Value
—
PnL
-$101.34
Record
58%
193-138 (331)
Invested
$40.03
Value
$32.78
PnL
-$7.25
Record
51%
4524-4391 (8915)
Invested
$27.66
Value
—
PnL
-$27.66
Record
38%
580-937 (1517)
Invested
$28.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$21.5
Record
50%
1731-1732 (3463)
Invested
$22.94
Value
$44.98
PnL
+$22.04
Record
50%
705-716 (1421)
Invested
$185.29
Value
—
PnL
-$185.29
Record
47%
921-1056 (1977)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
—
PnL
-$20.41
Record
52%
2446-2260 (4706)
Invested
$13.5
Value
—
PnL
-$13.5
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$92.59
Value
—
PnL
-$92.59
Record
50%
457-452 (909)
Invested
$10.22
Value
—
PnL
-$10.22
Record
52%
1693-1534 (3227)
Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
47%
1965-2218 (4183)
Invested
$7.5
Value
—
PnL
-$7.5
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$9.81
Value
—
PnL
-$9.81
Record
60%
3418-2292 (5710)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.64
Record
41%
1439-2039 (3478)
gabigolCTR<$100Invested
$5.34
Value
—
PnL
-$5.34
Record
49%
240-254 (494)
Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
48%
1131-1211 (2342)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.4K
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Up — $276.65
Hcrystallash
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $80
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $60
Alpharo28
CTRDown — $0