Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$20.03

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,073

Combined PnL-$35.28

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$15.25

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.24	98% 3320-70 (3390)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$786.58	$813.56	+$26.98	51% 2914-2831 (5745)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$582.26	$813.56	+$231.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.6¢	$204.32	—	-$204.32
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$829.39	$868.64	+$39.25	47% 921-1056 (1977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.3¢	$749.47	$868.64	+$119.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$79.92	—	-$79.92
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$512.66	$498.52	-$2.76	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$248.97	$498.52	+$249.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$253	—	-$252.7
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 91.8¢	$478.95	$394	-$77.28	50% 457-452 (909)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$227.67	$243.22	+$15.55	55% 4299-3527 (7826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.3¢	$168.67	$243.22	+$74.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.7¢	$59	—	-$59
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 68.1¢	$322.19	$230.52	-$29.81	58% 4914-3586 (8500)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$249.6	$165.63	+$9.24	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.9¢	$114.18	$165.63	+$59.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$54.31	—	-$50.18
AL almachCTR	Upavg 11.8¢	$183.47	—	+$66.53	50% 1276-1266 (2542)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$39.9	—	-$39.9	51% 4524-4391 (8915)
gabigolARB<$100	Downavg 96¢	$50.94	$52.1	+$1.16	49% 240-254 (494)
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$0.92	—	-$0.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 96¢	$50.02	$52.1	+$2.08
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 88.6¢	$74.03	$69.12	-$0.26	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 72.7¢	$92.75	$123.53	+$30.79	58% 193-138 (331)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$29.69	$34.29	+$4.6	49% 845-866 (1711)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 55¢	$24	$24	+$0	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.54	—	-$0.54	50% 1265-1289 (2554)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72¢	$24.04	$33.28	+$9.24	60% 3418-2292 (5710)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 48¢	$13.37	$17.21	+$3.84	52% 1693-1534 (3227)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 33.1¢	$8.98	—	-$8.98	52% 2446-2260 (4706)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$11.06	$23.42	+$12.36	50% 705-716 (1421)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.38	—	-$1.38	41% 1439-2039 (3478)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$1.02	—	-$0.5	46% 2530-3008 (5538)