Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

23 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (82%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$674.49

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 28 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,840

Combined PnL+$712.8

Up5 traders

Total Value$30.15

Total Shares117

Combined PnL-$38.31

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 54.4¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$75.94	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$20.82	98% 3242-69 (3311)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 42.6¢	$559.58	$737.26	+$177.68	50% 448-445 (893)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 96¢	$591.48	$585.46	-$5.82	41% 1393-1983 (3376)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 49.6¢	$466.11	$572.78	+$106.67	58% 4903-3576 (8479)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 50.6¢	$326.48	$567.44	+$240.96	46% 902-1042 (1944)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$538.73	$497.1	+$8.3	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$242.85	$316.05	+$76.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$251.37	$181.05	-$67.95
ST stepahead	Downavg 48.3¢	$298.77	$329.35	+$30.58	55% 4277-3516 (7793)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 52.2¢	$300.65	$243.98	+$5.38	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
AL almach	Downavg 70.9¢	$144.59	$201.07	+$56.48	50% 1247-1249 (2496)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 55.1¢	$111.5	$142.51	+$31	49% 837-862 (1699)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 84.2¢	$131.65	$124.77	-$6.88	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
gabigol	Downavg 93.9¢	$109.41	$111.26	+$1.85	48% 234-252 (486)
MO mo-money	Downavg 46.5¢	$51.81	$109.01	+$57.2	49% 1236-1272 (2508)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94.3¢	$89.62	$89.77	+$0.16	52% 2416-2220 (4636)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$66.39	$67.75	+$2.56	59% 178-126 (304)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$81.25	$65	-$16.25	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$38.35	$38.68	+$0.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$42.9	$26.33	-$16.57
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$38.4	$54.32	+$15.92	47% 1893-2128 (4021)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$71.68	$53.57	+$14.17	60% 3365-2262 (5627)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$24.76	$43.78	+$19.02	48% 1870-2057 (3927)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$15.3	$34.98	+$19.68	47% 1939-2183 (4122)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 40¢	$17.3	$15.95	-$1.35	44% 1860-2404 (4264)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 66¢	$13.34	$12.83	-$0.51	71% 1442-587 (2029)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$9.64	$11.77	+$2.13	65% 1886-1036 (2922)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$10.96	$10.16	-$0.8	52% 4799-4479 (9278)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,876.79

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$75.94

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,749.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$20.82

Record

98%

3242-69 (3311)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$559.58

Value

$737.26

PnL

+$177.68

Record

50%

448-445 (893)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$591.48

Value

$585.46

PnL

-$5.82

Record

41%

1393-1983 (3376)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$466.11

Value

$572.78

PnL

+$106.67

Record

58%

4903-3576 (8479)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$326.48

Value

$567.44

PnL

+$240.96

Record

46%

902-1042 (1944)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$538.73

Value

$497.1

PnL

+$8.3

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Down$242.8549.6¢+$76.25

Up$251.3749.3¢-$67.95

stepahead

Down

Invested

$298.77

Value

$329.35

PnL

+$30.58

Record

55%

4277-3516 (7793)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$300.65

Value

$243.98

PnL

+$5.38

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

almach

Down

Invested

$144.59

Value

$201.07

PnL

+$56.48

Record

50%

1247-1249 (2496)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$111.5

Value

$142.51

PnL

+$31

Record

49%

837-862 (1699)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$131.65

Value

$124.77

PnL

-$6.88

Record

50%

4163-4232 (8395)

gabigol

Down

Invested

$109.41

Value

$111.26

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

234-252 (486)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$51.81

Value

$109.01

PnL

+$57.2

Record

49%

1236-1272 (2508)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$89.62

Value

$89.77

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

2416-2220 (4636)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$66.39

Value

$67.75

PnL

+$2.56

Record

59%

178-126 (304)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$81.25

Value

$65

PnL

-$16.25

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

Both legs:

Down$38.3559¢+$0.32

Up$42.966¢-$16.57

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$38.4

Value

$54.32

PnL

+$15.92

Record

47%

1893-2128 (4021)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$71.68

Value

$53.57

PnL

+$14.17

Record

60%

3365-2262 (5627)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.76

Value

$43.78

PnL

+$19.02

Record

48%

1870-2057 (3927)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$15.3

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$19.68

Record

47%

1939-2183 (4122)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$17.3

Value

$15.95

PnL

-$1.35

Record

44%

1860-2404 (4264)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$13.34

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.51

Record

71%

1442-587 (2029)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$9.64

Value

$11.77

PnL

+$2.13

Record

65%

1886-1036 (2922)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

4799-4479 (9278)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 28 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.