Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$14.4K
$825.67
Smart Money Signal
24 of 31 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 73¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$331.52 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$370.01 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$23.95 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 78.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$125 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | +$11.28 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
AL almach | Downavg 79.8¢ | $1.1K | $919.08 | +$103.08 | 50% 1247-1249 (2496) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $875.44 | $866 | -$9.45 | 50% 448-445 (893) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 68.8¢ | $744.9 | $762.96 | +$18.59 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
BO bosona | Downavg 88.3¢ | $1.1K | $748.54 | +$10.83 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.1¢ | $708.76 | $724.4 | +$15.64 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $518.68 | $500 | -$3 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $253.82 | $500 | +$248.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $249.71 | — | -$251.6 | |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 93¢ | $414.11 | $435.04 | +$20.93 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
 gabigol | Downavg 93.9¢ | $305.53 | $325.24 | +$19.71 | 48% 234-252 (486) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $279.61 | $272.87 | -$6.74 | 49% 837-862 (1699) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 78.2¢ | $179.23 | $191.67 | +$12.44 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $133.42 | $146 | +$19.88 | 59% 178-126 (304) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 55.2¢ | $143 | $128 | +$0 | 58% 4903-3576 (8479) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $179.05 | $129.24 | -$36.52 | 60% 3365-2262 (5627) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $79.7 | $98 | +$18.3 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $80.98 | $80 | -$0.98 | 47% 1893-2128 (4021) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $36.61 | $30 | -$6.61 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $29.95 | — | -$29.95 | 47% 1939-2183 (4122) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $24.12 | $29 | +$4.88 | 44% 1860-2404 (4264) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $28 | — | -$28 | 50% 1696-1707 (3403) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $12.25 | $20 | +$7.75 | 65% 1886-1036 (2922) |
Invested
$1,847.14
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$331.52
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Invested
$1,453.99
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$370.01
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
Invested
$1,755.82
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$23.95
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$1,124.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$125
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,481.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.28
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$1,075.52
Value
$919.08
PnL
+$103.08
Record
50%
1247-1249 (2496)
Invested
$875.44
Value
$866
PnL
-$9.45
Record
50%
448-445 (893)
Invested
$744.9
Value
$762.96
PnL
+$18.59
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Invested
$1,068.66
Value
$748.54
PnL
+$10.83
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Invested
$708.76
Value
$724.4
PnL
+$15.64
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
Invested
$518.68
Value
$500
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$414.11
Value
$435.04
PnL
+$20.93
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
gabigolInvested
$305.53
Value
$325.24
PnL
+$19.71
Record
48%
234-252 (486)
Invested
$279.61
Value
$272.87
PnL
-$6.74
Record
49%
837-862 (1699)
Invested
$179.23
Value
$191.67
PnL
+$12.44
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$133.42
Value
$146
PnL
+$19.88
Record
59%
178-126 (304)
Invested
$143
Value
$128
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
4903-3576 (8479)
Invested
$179.05
Value
$129.24
PnL
-$36.52
Record
60%
3365-2262 (5627)
ohioism<$100Invested
$79.7
Value
$98
PnL
+$18.3
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
Invested
$80.98
Value
$80
PnL
-$0.98
Record
47%
1893-2128 (4021)
Invested
$36.61
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.61
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$29.95
Value
—
PnL
-$29.95
Record
47%
1939-2183 (4122)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$24.12
Value
$29
PnL
+$4.88
Record
44%
1860-2404 (4264)
Invested
$28
Value
—
PnL
-$28
Record
50%
1696-1707 (3403)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.75
Record
65%
1886-1036 (2922)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.0K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
mo-money
Down — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $1.1K
almach
Down — $919.08
aswfadq1555
Down — $866
CrouchPredictions
Down — $762.96
bosona
Down — $748.54
stepahead
Down — $724.4