Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

22 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$43.02

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 26 top traders (85%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,283

Combined PnL+$42.4

Up4 traders

Total Value$124.96

Total Shares641

Combined PnL-$85.41

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$1.0K	$972.8	-$50.24	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$599.59	$667.81	+$68.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$423.46	$304.99	-$118.46
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$679.35	$686.19	+$6.83	98% 3197-68 (3265)
MO mo-money	Downavg 83.3¢	$610.49	$538.82	-$8.71	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$513.8	$495.35	-$3.75	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245.1	$316.05	+$71.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$253.68	$179.3	-$75.1
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$427.44	$441.38	+$13.94	58% 4899-3572 (8471)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$261.51	$343.16	+$81.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.9¢	$165.93	$98.22	-$67.71
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.3¢	$492.69	$350.31	-$142.38	46% 896-1035 (1931)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 66.5¢	$234.44	$340.31	+$113.57	50% 446-441 (887)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61¢	$395.53	$303.51	+$48.56	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$215.57	$216.39	+$0.81	55% 4269-3511 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$121.45	$162.04	+$40.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.6¢	$94.12	$54.35	-$39.78
AL almach	Downavg 79.2¢	$237.57	$199.78	-$37.79	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 80.5¢	$161.7	$145.98	-$14.52	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 69.9¢	$82.95	$101.74	+$27.12	58% 171-122 (293)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$42.75	$74.7	+$31.95	48% 160-174 (334)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 70.9¢	$74.5	$73.6	-$0.9	47% 1925-2172 (4097)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$66.91	$72.46	+$5.55	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$71.6	$65.68	-$5.93	44% 1849-2382 (4231)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$34.5	$35.75	+$1.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.3¢	$37.1	$29.92	-$7.18
ohioism<$100	Downavg 74¢	$61	$59.43	-$1.57	48% 1860-2039 (3899)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$57.99	$58.78	+$0.79	58% 120-87 (207)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 75¢	$55.49	$55.13	-$0.36	47% 1885-2113 (3998)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$41.29	$47.94	+$6.66	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
gabigol<$100	Downavg 83.7¢	$46.19	$47.74	+$1.55	48% 232-251 (483)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 42.6¢	$41.76	$39.17	-$2.59	49% 836-858 (1694)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 56¢	$20.5	$29.45	+$8.95	65% 1885-1032 (2917)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66¢	$22.1	$25.78	+$3.67	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 83¢	$20.75	$24.99	+$4.24	71% 1440-584 (2024)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,023.05

Value

$972.8

PnL

-$50.24

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

Both legs:

Down$599.5973.2¢+$68.22

Up$423.4625.7¢-$118.46

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$679.35

Value

$686.19

PnL

+$6.83

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$610.49

Value

$538.82

PnL

-$8.71

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$513.8

Value

$495.35

PnL

-$3.75

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Invested

$427.44

Value

$441.38

PnL

+$13.94

Record

58%

4899-3572 (8471)

Both legs:

Down$261.5163.6¢+$81.65

Up$165.9327.9¢-$67.71

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$492.69

Value

$350.31

PnL

-$142.38

Record

46%

896-1035 (1931)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$234.44

Value

$340.31

PnL

+$113.57

Record

50%

446-441 (887)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$395.53

Value

$303.51

PnL

+$48.56

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$215.57

Value

$216.39

PnL

+$0.81

Record

55%

4269-3511 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$121.4562.6¢+$40.59

Up$94.1228.6¢-$39.78

almach

Down

Invested

$237.57

Value

$199.78

PnL

-$37.79

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$161.7

Value

$145.98

PnL

-$14.52

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$82.95

Value

$101.74

PnL

+$27.12

Record

58%

171-122 (293)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$42.75

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$31.95

Record

48%

160-174 (334)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$74.5

Value

$73.6

PnL

-$0.9

Record

47%

1925-2172 (4097)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$66.91

Value

$72.46

PnL

+$5.55

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$71.6

Value

$65.68

PnL

-$5.93

Record

44%

1849-2382 (4231)

Both legs:

Invested

$61

Value

$59.43

PnL

-$1.57

Record

48%

1860-2039 (3899)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Down

Invested

$57.99

Value

$58.78

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

120-87 (207)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$55.49

Value

$55.13

PnL

-$0.36

Record

47%

1885-2113 (3998)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$41.29

Value

$47.94

PnL

+$6.66

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

gabigol<$100

Down

Invested

$46.19

Value

$47.74

PnL

+$1.55

Record

48%

232-251 (483)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$41.76

Value

$39.17

PnL

-$2.59

Record

49%

836-858 (1694)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$20.5

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$8.95

Record

65%

1885-1032 (2917)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$22.1

Value

$25.78

PnL

+$3.67

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$20.75

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$4.24

Record

71%

1440-584 (2024)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 26 top traders (85%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.