Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 57%
3 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 30 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$97.91 | 51% 2812-2714 (5526) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.64 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$43.08 | 50% 436-435 (871) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 97.4¢ | $1.2K | $873.16 | -$344.34 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84.3¢ | $932.75 | $841.3 | -$89.55 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
AL almach | Upavg 97¢ | $1.1K | $821.01 | -$314.92 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $602.7 | $612 | +$9.3 | 41% 1336-1928 (3264) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $504.95 | $490 | -$9.65 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $254.95 | — | -$254.95 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 69.4¢ | $492.84 | $477.01 | -$1.03 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $300.01 | $219.46 | -$80.55 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.5¢ | $167.87 | $219.46 | +$51.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37¢ | $132.15 | — | -$132.15 | |
 gabigol | Upavg 97.9¢ | $182.04 | $186 | +$3.97 | 49% 231-244 (475) |
BO bosona | Upavg 95.6¢ | $797.1 | $170.35 | -$225.21 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $160.29 | $139.99 | -$20.3 | 49% 827-855 (1682) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $168 | $58.85 | -$109.15 | 58% 4878-3558 (8436) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $135.09 | — | -$135.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $32.91 | $58.85 | +$25.94 | |
AA aaa221CTR | Downavg 48.7¢ | $164.1 | — | -$164.1 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $91.09 | — | -$90.3 | 59% 156-109 (265) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $37.7 | $30 | -$5 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $27.03 | — | -$27.03 | 51% 849-816 (1665) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.6¢ | $43.27 | — | -$43.27 | 52% 2385-2166 (4551) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.9¢ | $28.3 | — | -$28.3 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $22.2 | $15 | -$7.2 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $16.75 | — | -$16.75 | 47% 1892-2135 (4027) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 90.2¢ | $17.59 | $16.24 | -$1.35 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $12.14 | $25.6 | +$13.46 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $8.64 | $9 | +$0.36 | 50% 2202-2243 (4445) |
Invested
$1,691
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$97.91
Record
51%
2812-2714 (5526)
Invested
$1,233.35
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.64
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$1,205.29
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$43.08
Record
50%
436-435 (871)
Invested
$1,217.5
Value
$873.16
PnL
-$344.34
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$932.75
Value
$841.3
PnL
-$89.55
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$1,135.93
Value
$821.01
PnL
-$314.92
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$602.7
Value
$612
PnL
+$9.3
Record
41%
1336-1928 (3264)
Invested
$504.95
Value
$490
PnL
-$9.65
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$492.84
Value
$477.01
PnL
-$1.03
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$300.01
Value
$219.46
PnL
-$80.55
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Both legs:
gabigolInvested
$182.04
Value
$186
PnL
+$3.97
Record
49%
231-244 (475)
Invested
$797.1
Value
$170.35
PnL
-$225.21
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$160.29
Value
$139.99
PnL
-$20.3
Record
49%
827-855 (1682)
Invested
$168
Value
$58.85
PnL
-$109.15
Record
58%
4878-3558 (8436)
Both legs:
Invested
$164.1
Value
—
PnL
-$164.1
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
Invested
$91.09
Value
—
PnL
-$90.3
Record
59%
156-109 (265)
Invested
$37.7
Value
$30
PnL
-$5
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$27.03
Value
—
PnL
-$27.03
Record
51%
849-816 (1665)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$43.27
Value
—
PnL
-$43.27
Record
52%
2385-2166 (4551)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$28.3
Value
—
PnL
-$28.3
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$15
PnL
-$7.2
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$16.75
Value
—
PnL
-$16.75
Record
47%
1892-2135 (4027)
Invested
$17.59
Value
$16.24
PnL
-$1.35
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
Invested
$12.14
Value
$25.6
PnL
+$13.46
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
2202-2243 (4445)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.8K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
aswfadq1555
Up — $1.2K
mo-money
Up — $873.16
CrouchPredictions
Up — $841.3
almach
Up — $821.01
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $612
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $477.01
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded