Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 52%
4 arb excluded
$5.6K
$-3.0K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 31 top traders (52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 49.6¢ | $3.0K | — | $-3.0K | 51% 2812-2714 (5526) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $894.62 | $905.98 | +$11.36 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 39¢ | $345.25 | $883.7 | +$538.45 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $752.32 | $765.41 | +$70.65 | 50% 436-435 (871) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 55.5¢ | $622.73 | $717.48 | +$95.95 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 41.8¢ | $594.84 | — | -$594.84 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $529.82 | $489.08 | -$0.25 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $243.67 | $489.08 | +$249.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $251.44 | — | -$250.2 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $362.17 | $403.98 | +$41.81 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.8¢ | $124.32 | $403.98 | +$279.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55¢ | $237.85 | — | -$237.85 | |
AL almach | Downavg 52.5¢ | $204.49 | $385.47 | +$180.98 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 41¢ | $424.15 | — | -$255.76 | 58% 4878-3558 (8436) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 14.9¢ | $190.66 | $188.98 | -$1.67 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.8¢ | $63.88 | $188.98 | +$125.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.9¢ | $126.77 | — | -$126.77 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 56¢ | $68.53 | $109.67 | +$43.49 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $59.4 | $105 | +$48.2 | 47% 1892-2135 (4027) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $88.29 | $92.87 | +$22.08 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $35.25 | $73.16 | +$37.91 | 48% 156-171 (327) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $70.6 | $80 | +$9.4 | 49% 827-855 (1682) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.3¢ | $33.8 | $80 | +$46.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.3¢ | $36.8 | — | -$36.8 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $60.36 | $84 | +$23.64 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $52.2 | $52 | -$0.2 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $58.72 | $71.8 | +$13.08 | 59% 156-109 (265) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | 50% 1672-1674 (3346) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $30.99 | — | -$21.72 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 25.4¢ | $38.2 | $150.27 | +$112.07 | 52% 2385-2166 (4551) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $15.4 | $40 | +$24.6 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $75.05 | — | -$10.58 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
Invested
$3,010
Value
—
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
51%
2812-2714 (5526)
Invested
$894.62
Value
$905.98
PnL
+$11.36
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$345.25
Value
$883.7
PnL
+$538.45
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$752.32
Value
$765.41
PnL
+$70.65
Record
50%
436-435 (871)
Invested
$622.73
Value
$717.48
PnL
+$95.95
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$594.84
Value
—
PnL
-$594.84
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$529.82
Value
$489.08
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$362.17
Value
$403.98
PnL
+$41.81
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Both legs:
Invested
$204.49
Value
$385.47
PnL
+$180.98
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$424.15
Value
—
PnL
-$255.76
Record
58%
4878-3558 (8436)
Invested
$190.66
Value
$188.98
PnL
-$1.67
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$68.53
Value
$109.67
PnL
+$43.49
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
Invested
$59.4
Value
$105
PnL
+$48.2
Record
47%
1892-2135 (4027)
Invested
$88.29
Value
$92.87
PnL
+$22.08
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$35.25
Value
$73.16
PnL
+$37.91
Record
48%
156-171 (327)
Invested
$70.6
Value
$80
PnL
+$9.4
Record
49%
827-855 (1682)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.36
Value
$84
PnL
+$23.64
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$52.2
Value
$52
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Invested
$58.72
Value
$71.8
PnL
+$13.08
Record
59%
156-109 (265)
Invested
$27
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
50%
1672-1674 (3346)
Invested
$30.99
Value
—
PnL
-$21.72
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$38.2
Value
$150.27
PnL
+$112.07
Record
52%
2385-2166 (4551)
ohioism<$100Invested
$15.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$24.6
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
Invested
$75.05
Value
—
PnL
-$10.58
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $905.98
mo-money
Down — $883.7
aswfadq1555
Down — $765.41
CrouchPredictions
Down — $717.48
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $385.47
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0