Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
40
Up 62%
1 arb excluded
$7.2K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 40 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $2.6K | — | $-2.6K | 50% 1950-1946 (3896) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $478.47 | $1.2K | +$733.52 | 37% 696-1185 (1881) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 84.4¢ | $749.2 | $888.11 | +$138.91 | 37% 206-346 (552) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $546.08 | $650.74 | +$104.66 | 49% 310-321 (631) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 43.9¢ | $716.6 | — | -$686.72 | 58% 4598-3385 (7983) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 28.5¢ | $334.13 | — | -$334.13 | 46% 648-769 (1417) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $516.42 | $493.59 | +$9.79 | 56% 2444-1918 (4362) |
BO bosona | Upavg 24¢ | $122.03 | $500 | +$377.97 | 50% 4099-4056 (8155) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65¢ | $349.47 | $437.14 | +$87.67 | 55% 3956-3293 (7249) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 90.4¢ | $396.28 | $438.18 | +$41.9 | 19% 248-1037 (1285) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 88¢ | $443.58 | $465.04 | +$56.42 | 48% 862-943 (1805) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $111.22 | $223.03 | +$111.81 | 48% 792-847 (1639) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $214.26 | $216.42 | +$2.16 | 98% 2375-46 (2421) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $108.63 | $173.29 | +$66.99 | 47% 1391-1589 (2980) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 38.5¢ | $67.75 | $165 | +$97.25 | 46% 1331-1557 (2888) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 53¢ | $89.01 | $167.94 | +$78.93 | 50% 470-473 (943) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $138.76 | $126.28 | -$12.48 | 48% 656-701 (1357) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 50.9¢ | $122.97 | — | -$122.97 | 52% 1443-1311 (2754) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 89.4¢ | $98.98 | $110.72 | +$11.74 | 23% 226-759 (985) |
LI Little-bigARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $150.67 | $94.91 | -$55.76 | 52% 659-597 (1256) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.3¢ | $50.58 | $94.91 | +$44.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $100.09 | — | -$100.09 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 46.4¢ | $62.57 | $80 | +$18.83 | 48% 1346-1482 (2828) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $28.94 | $87 | +$58.06 | 44% 1360-1726 (3086) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 63.1¢ | $72.14 | $68.88 | -$3.26 | 66% 2339-1192 (3531) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.2¢ | $79.77 | — | -$55.05 | 52% 4143-3893 (8036) |
Invested
$2,617.18
Value
—
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
50%
1950-1946 (3896)
Invested
$478.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$733.52
Record
37%
696-1185 (1881)
Invested
$749.2
Value
$888.11
PnL
+$138.91
Record
37%
206-346 (552)
Invested
$546.08
Value
$650.74
PnL
+$104.66
Record
49%
310-321 (631)
Invested
$716.6
Value
—
PnL
-$686.72
Record
58%
4598-3385 (7983)
Invested
$334.13
Value
—
PnL
-$334.13
Record
46%
648-769 (1417)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$516.42
Value
$493.59
PnL
+$9.79
Record
56%
2444-1918 (4362)
Invested
$122.03
Value
$500
PnL
+$377.97
Record
50%
4099-4056 (8155)
Invested
$349.47
Value
$437.14
PnL
+$87.67
Record
55%
3956-3293 (7249)
NIULAI4Invested
$396.28
Value
$438.18
PnL
+$41.9
Record
19%
248-1037 (1285)
Invested
$443.58
Value
$465.04
PnL
+$56.42
Record
48%
862-943 (1805)
Invested
$111.22
Value
$223.03
PnL
+$111.81
Record
48%
792-847 (1639)
Invested
$214.26
Value
$216.42
PnL
+$2.16
Record
98%
2375-46 (2421)
Invested
$108.63
Value
$173.29
PnL
+$66.99
Record
47%
1391-1589 (2980)
Invested
$67.75
Value
$165
PnL
+$97.25
Record
46%
1331-1557 (2888)
Invested
$89.01
Value
$167.94
PnL
+$78.93
Record
50%
470-473 (943)
Invested
$138.76
Value
$126.28
PnL
-$12.48
Record
48%
656-701 (1357)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$122.97
Value
—
PnL
-$122.97
Record
52%
1443-1311 (2754)
AtomforgeInvested
$98.98
Value
$110.72
PnL
+$11.74
Record
23%
226-759 (985)
Invested
$150.67
Value
$94.91
PnL
-$55.76
Record
52%
659-597 (1256)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$62.57
Value
$80
PnL
+$18.83
Record
48%
1346-1482 (2828)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$28.94
Value
$87
PnL
+$58.06
Record
44%
1360-1726 (3086)
Invested
$72.14
Value
$68.88
PnL
-$3.26
Record
66%
2339-1192 (3531)
Invested
$79.77
Value
—
PnL
-$55.05
Record
52%
4143-3893 (8036)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $1.2K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $888.11
aswfadq1555
Up — $650.74
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $493.59
bosona
Up — $500
stepahead
Up — $437.14