Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Up 59%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 38 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 69.6¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 49% 298-309 (607) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 30.2¢ | $1.2K | — | -$681.25 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 95.4¢ | $747.41 | $783.05 | +$35.64 | 37% 203-343 (546) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 94¢ | $653.13 | $695 | +$41.87 | 19% 237-1022 (1259) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 57.2¢ | $518.91 | $597.41 | +$78.5 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 21.2¢ | $286.15 | — | -$286.15 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $502.18 | $507.25 | +$5.07 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
BO bosona | Upavg 8¢ | $53.64 | $502.27 | +$448.63 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $514.96 | $493 | +$8.44 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $248.78 | — | -$240.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $239.25 | $493 | +$249.25 | |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $331.21 | — | -$297.23 | 58% 4568-3363 (7931) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 52.5¢ | $178.7 | — | -$178.7 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 50.9¢ | $316.17 | — | -$74.21 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 93.6¢ | $129.36 | $138.22 | +$8.86 | 23% 222-759 (981) |
AL almach | Upavg 76¢ | $105.36 | $133.93 | +$28.57 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 65.5¢ | $112.28 | $98 | +$7.06 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 70.9¢ | $59.57 | $81.23 | +$21.66 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $17.25 | $75 | +$57.75 | 74% 1071-381 (1452) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $58.85 | $70 | +$12.2 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $46.16 | $62.11 | +$15.95 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $60.72 | $55.39 | -$5.33 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $62.57 | — | -$62.57 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $38.23 | — | -$38.23 | 49% 640-663 (1303) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $20.95 | $41.06 | +$20.11 | 48% 1515-1649 (3164) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 47.7¢ | $14.3 | $30 | +$15.7 | 48% 772-820 (1592) |
Invested
$1,336.88
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
49%
298-309 (607)
Invested
$1,204.05
Value
—
PnL
-$681.25
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$747.41
Value
$783.05
PnL
+$35.64
Record
37%
203-343 (546)
NIULAI4Invested
$653.13
Value
$695
PnL
+$41.87
Record
19%
237-1022 (1259)
Invested
$518.91
Value
$597.41
PnL
+$78.5
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$286.15
Value
—
PnL
-$286.15
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Invested
$502.18
Value
$507.25
PnL
+$5.07
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$53.64
Value
$502.27
PnL
+$448.63
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$514.96
Value
$493
PnL
+$8.44
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$331.21
Value
—
PnL
-$297.23
Record
58%
4568-3363 (7931)
Invested
$178.7
Value
—
PnL
-$178.7
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$316.17
Value
—
PnL
-$74.21
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
AtomforgeInvested
$129.36
Value
$138.22
PnL
+$8.86
Record
23%
222-759 (981)
Invested
$105.36
Value
$133.93
PnL
+$28.57
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
Invested
$112.28
Value
$98
PnL
+$7.06
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$59.57
Value
$81.23
PnL
+$21.66
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$17.25
Value
$75
PnL
+$57.75
Record
74%
1071-381 (1452)
Invested
$58.85
Value
$70
PnL
+$12.2
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
Invested
$46.16
Value
$62.11
PnL
+$15.95
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$60.72
Value
$55.39
PnL
-$5.33
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
Invested
$62.57
Value
—
PnL
-$62.57
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$38.23
Value
—
PnL
-$38.23
Record
49%
640-663 (1303)
Invested
$20.95
Value
$41.06
PnL
+$20.11
Record
48%
1515-1649 (3164)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.7
Record
48%
772-820 (1592)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $783.05
NIULAI4
Up — $695
stepahead
Up — $597.41
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $507.25
bosona
Up — $502.27
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded