Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
29 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Down
36
Down 81%
$4.7K
$292.46
75.6¢ → 100¢
+32% since entry · 29 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
29 of 36 top traders (81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 85¢ | $432.52 | $496.9 | +$64.38 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $396.99 | $399 | +$2 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
AL almach | Downavg 91.9¢ | $290.55 | $308.6 | +$18.05 | 47% 731-834 (1565) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61.5¢ | $157.35 | $248.16 | +$90.82 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $178.4 | $233.34 | +$54.94 | 49% 271-280 (551) |
 gabigol | Downavg 93.7¢ | $200.22 | $208.28 | +$8.06 | 53% 166-147 (313) |
FL flippingsharks | Downavg 76.9¢ | $158.32 | $180.16 | +$21.85 | 37% 417-704 (1121) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.8¢ | $208.01 | $179.98 | -$28.02 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
DE devonpoll | Downavg 50¢ | $187.87 | $178.59 | -$6.1 | 51% 254-244 (498) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 68.7¢ | $131.44 | $142.7 | +$11.26 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 70.6¢ | $171.31 | $123.9 | +$2.6 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 70¢ | $105 | $111.75 | +$6.75 | 74% 942-328 (1270) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $96.93 | $106 | +$9.07 | 49% 570-602 (1172) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 78.5¢ | $117.26 | $97.98 | +$2.05 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $81.7 | $84.32 | +$2.62 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $42.75 | $73.43 | +$30.68 | 44% 95-120 (215) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 73.1¢ | $59.97 | $73.11 | +$14.89 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $58.02 | $55.59 | +$2.16 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $55.2 | $45.3 | -$9.9 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 33.8¢ | $15.2 | $44.98 | +$29.78 | 57% 80-60 (140) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $39.32 | $36.13 | -$3.19 | 60% 2210-1484 (3694) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $34.75 | $35.25 | +$0.5 | 47% 1200-1358 (2558) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $53.75 | $33.13 | -$20.63 | 46% 1152-1359 (2511) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$432.52
Value
$496.9
PnL
+$64.38
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$396.99
Value
$399
PnL
+$2
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
Invested
$290.55
Value
$308.6
PnL
+$18.05
Record
47%
731-834 (1565)
Invested
$157.35
Value
$248.16
PnL
+$90.82
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$178.4
Value
$233.34
PnL
+$54.94
Record
49%
271-280 (551)
gabigolInvested
$200.22
Value
$208.28
PnL
+$8.06
Record
53%
166-147 (313)
Invested
$158.32
Value
$180.16
PnL
+$21.85
Record
37%
417-704 (1121)
Invested
$208.01
Value
$179.98
PnL
-$28.02
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$187.87
Value
$178.59
PnL
-$6.1
Record
51%
254-244 (498)
Invested
$131.44
Value
$142.7
PnL
+$11.26
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$171.31
Value
$123.9
PnL
+$2.6
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
BoneOhioInvested
$105
Value
$111.75
PnL
+$6.75
Record
74%
942-328 (1270)
Invested
$96.93
Value
$106
PnL
+$9.07
Record
49%
570-602 (1172)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$117.26
Value
$97.98
PnL
+$2.05
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$81.7
Value
$84.32
PnL
+$2.62
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$42.75
Value
$73.43
PnL
+$30.68
Record
44%
95-120 (215)
Invested
$59.97
Value
$73.11
PnL
+$14.89
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$58.02
Value
$55.59
PnL
+$2.16
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$55.2
Value
$45.3
PnL
-$9.9
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$44.98
PnL
+$29.78
Record
57%
80-60 (140)
Invested
$39.32
Value
$36.13
PnL
-$3.19
Record
60%
2210-1484 (3694)
Invested
$34.75
Value
$35.25
PnL
+$0.5
Record
47%
1200-1358 (2558)
Invested
$53.75
Value
$33.13
PnL
-$20.63
Record
46%
1152-1359 (2511)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $500
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $500
bosona
Down — $496.9
hoodquant
Down — $399
almach
Down — $308.6
mo-money
Down — $248.16
aswfadq1555
Down — $233.34
gabigol
Down — $208.28
flippingsharks
Down — $180.16
stepahead
Down — $179.98