Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 86%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
$801
Smart Money Signal
24 of 29 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 90.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$123.04 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 45.1¢ | $333.78 | $739.53 | +$405.75 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $324.31 | $671.39 | +$347.07 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 55.6¢ | $238.01 | $260.09 | +$22.09 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 51.5¢ | $179.57 | $209.72 | +$30.15 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 39.5¢ | $296.19 | — | -$211.54 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $186.41 | $191.87 | +$5.46 | 51% 254-244 (498) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $96.41 | $191.87 | +$95.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 45.9¢ | $51.75 | $112.73 | +$60.98 | 44% 1174-1476 (2650) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 66.3¢ | $98.58 | $110 | +$11.42 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 58.9¢ | $62.77 | $106.56 | +$43.79 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
 gabigol | Upavg 78.3¢ | $80.46 | $100.2 | +$19.74 | 53% 166-147 (313) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 61.6¢ | $59.75 | $90 | +$30.5 | 48% 1183-1263 (2446) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $84.1 | $86.49 | +$5.09 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $83.8 | — | -$83.8 | 37% 417-704 (1121) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $68.04 | $75.86 | +$7.82 | 49% 570-602 (1172) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $21.39 | $31 | +$9.61 | 47% 1200-1358 (2558) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $30 | +$13.8 | 48% 671-740 (1411) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $29.31 | $39.24 | +$9.93 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $21.45 | $20.63 | -$0.82 | 47% 731-834 (1565) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98.3¢ | $18.68 | $19 | +$0.32 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 40.5¢ | $11.51 | $20 | +$8.49 | 51% 1494-1420 (2914) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $9.06 | $12.2 | +$3.14 | 62% 1422-863 (2285) |
Invested
$1,220.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$123.04
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
Invested
$333.78
Value
$739.53
PnL
+$405.75
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$324.31
Value
$671.39
PnL
+$347.07
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
Invested
$238.01
Value
$260.09
PnL
+$22.09
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$179.57
Value
$209.72
PnL
+$30.15
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$296.19
Value
—
PnL
-$211.54
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$186.41
Value
$191.87
PnL
+$5.46
Record
51%
254-244 (498)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$51.75
Value
$112.73
PnL
+$60.98
Record
44%
1174-1476 (2650)
Invested
$98.58
Value
$110
PnL
+$11.42
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$62.77
Value
$106.56
PnL
+$43.79
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
gabigolInvested
$80.46
Value
$100.2
PnL
+$19.74
Record
53%
166-147 (313)
ohioism<$100Invested
$59.75
Value
$90
PnL
+$30.5
Record
48%
1183-1263 (2446)
Invested
$84.1
Value
$86.49
PnL
+$5.09
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$83.8
Value
—
PnL
-$83.8
Record
37%
417-704 (1121)
Invested
$68.04
Value
$75.86
PnL
+$7.82
Record
49%
570-602 (1172)
Invested
$21.39
Value
$31
PnL
+$9.61
Record
47%
1200-1358 (2558)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$13.8
Record
48%
671-740 (1411)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
Invested
$29.31
Value
$39.24
PnL
+$9.93
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$20.63
PnL
-$0.82
Record
47%
731-834 (1565)
Invested
$18.68
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.32
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.51
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.49
Record
51%
1494-1420 (2914)
Invested
$9.06
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$3.14
Record
62%
1422-863 (2285)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Up — $1.3K
uninformedfloww
Up — $739.53
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $671.39
CrouchPredictions
Up — $260.09
stepahead
Up — $209.72
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $112.73