Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

20 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up80¢Down20¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$191.86

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 79.5¢

+20% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up80%

Down21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,878

Combined PnL+$193.53

Down6 traders

Total Value$152.37

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$1.67

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76.5¢	$877.21	$1.0K	+$125.78	50% 1065-1079 (2144)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 68.6¢	$805.54	$787.79	-$9.65	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 71.6¢	$272.26	$318.34	+$47.24	46% 568-667 (1235)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$146.5	$150.45	+$3.95	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$84.3	$116.25	+$31.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$62.2	$34.2	-$28
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$86.87	$89.38	+$2.51	48% 2055-2259 (4314)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$112.56	$85.08	+$8.21	57% 4464-3315 (7779)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$43.46	$59.15	+$24.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.3¢	$42.41	$25.93	-$16.48
ohioism<$100	Upavg 70¢	$77	$78.65	+$1.65	48% 1158-1248 (2406)
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 68¢	$78.09	$77.29	-$0.8	54% 3842-3215 (7057)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 73¢	$51.07	$53.55	+$2.48	51% 1480-1395 (2875)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 71¢	$52.8	$52.95	+$0.15	52% 3931-3686 (7617)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 52¢	$23.94	$37.05	+$13.12	48% 664-730 (1394)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$33.61	$31.16	-$2.45	37% 416-698 (1114)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 54¢	$23.04	$30.72	+$7.68	47% 727-821 (1548)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 52¢	$23.14	$21.52	+$2.43	62% 2307-1419 (3726)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 70¢	$17.5	$17.38	-$0.13	46% 1129-1340 (2469)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$15.7	$17.06	+$1.36	55% 1188-970 (2158)
gabigol<$100	Upavg 74.5¢	$15.72	$16.14	+$0.42	53% 165-144 (309)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$14.84	$14.83	-$0.01	49% 568-600 (1168)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$13.22	$13.89	+$0.67	66% 2010-1015 (3025)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$11.96	$12.08	+$0.12	48% 1066-1149 (2215)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 25.9¢	$11.79	$9.79	-$2	60% 2182-1462 (3644)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 70¢	$5.13	$5.86	+$0.73	62% 1393-857 (2250)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 70¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	47% 1320-1498 (2818)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$877.21

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$125.78

Record

50%

1065-1079 (2144)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$805.54

Value

$787.79

PnL

-$9.65

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$272.26

Value

$318.34

PnL

+$47.24

Record

46%

568-667 (1235)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$146.5

Value

$150.45

PnL

+$3.95

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

Both legs:

Up$84.356.2¢+$31.95

Down$62.240.9¢-$28

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.87

Value

$89.38

PnL

+$2.51

Record

48%

2055-2259 (4314)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$112.56

Value

$85.08

PnL

+$8.21

Record

57%

4464-3315 (7779)

Both legs:

Up$43.4662.1¢+$24.69

Down$42.4125.3¢-$16.48

ohioism<$100

Invested

$77

Value

$78.65

PnL

+$1.65

Record

48%

1158-1248 (2406)

stepahead<$100

Invested

$78.09

Value

$77.29

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

3842-3215 (7057)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$51.07

Value

$53.55

PnL

+$2.48

Record

51%

1480-1395 (2875)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$52.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

3931-3686 (7617)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$23.94

Value

$37.05

PnL

+$13.12

Record

48%

664-730 (1394)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.61

Value

$31.16

PnL

-$2.45

Record

37%

416-698 (1114)

almach<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$7.68

Record

47%

727-821 (1548)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$23.14

Value

$21.52

PnL

+$2.43

Record

62%

2307-1419 (3726)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$17.5

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

1129-1340 (2469)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

$17.06

PnL

+$1.36

Record

55%

1188-970 (2158)

gabigol<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$16.14

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

165-144 (309)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$14.84

Value

$14.83

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

568-600 (1168)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$13.22

Value

$13.89

PnL

+$0.67

Record

66%

2010-1015 (3025)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.96

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

1066-1149 (2215)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.79

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$2

Record

60%

2182-1462 (3644)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.73

Record

62%

1393-857 (2250)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

1320-1498 (2818)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.