Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

14 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up69¢Down31¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$80.88

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 68.5¢

+13% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up69%

Down32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,396

Combined PnL-$47.04

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,976

Combined PnL-$33.84

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 66.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$31.82	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 37.2¢	$321.08	$323.9	+$2.82	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 33.1¢	$180.33	$209.7	+$29.37	50% 3943-3950 (7893)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$187.65	$187.35	-$0.3	51% 235-230 (465)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$97.65	$118.05	+$20.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$69.3	-$20.7
AL almachCTR	Downavg 33.5¢	$159.95	$183.96	+$24.02	47% 716-816 (1532)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 43.9¢	$159.64	$129.14	-$30.5	46% 718-833 (1551)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 45¢	$153.17	$127.66	-$25.52	46% 563-662 (1225)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 45¢	$133.76	$114.86	-$12.4	57% 4456-3312 (7768)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$81.07	$65.71	-$15.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$46.66	$49.16	+$2.97
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$107.85	$107.82	-$0.03	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$56.5	$70.95	+$14.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$51.35	$36.87	-$14.48
BoneOhio	Upavg 67.8¢	$105	$99.83	-$5.17	74% 910-315 (1225)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 68¢	$102	$96.75	-$5.25	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$98.23	$90.11	-$6.63	54% 3834-3208 (7042)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$40.37	$52.74	+$12.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$55.97	$37.37	-$19.01
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$75.1	$75.85	+$0.75	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$75.15	$75.17	+$0.02	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 50.8¢	$105.56	$71.73	-$33.83	53% 568-507 (1075)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$36.75	$36.38	-$0.38	44% 94-120 (214)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$31.89	$28.45	-$3.44	37% 415-693 (1108)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$24.92	$25.66	+$0.74	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 67¢	$19	$17.3	-$1.7	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$18.04	$16.65	-$1.39	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 55¢	$25.25	$16.4	-$1.65	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$12.3	$14.63	+$2.33	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$7.1	$6.47	-$0.63	47% 1308-1484 (2792)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,138.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$31.82

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$321.08

Value

$323.9

PnL

+$2.82

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$180.33

Value

$209.7

PnL

+$29.37

Record

50%

3943-3950 (7893)

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$187.65

Value

$187.35

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

Both legs:

Invested

$159.95

Value

$183.96

PnL

+$24.02

Record

47%

716-816 (1532)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$159.64

Value

$129.14

PnL

-$30.5

Record

46%

718-833 (1551)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$153.17

Value

$127.66

PnL

-$25.52

Record

46%

563-662 (1225)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.76

Value

$114.86

PnL

-$12.4

Record

57%

4456-3312 (7768)

Both legs:

Down$81.0745¢-$15.36

Up$46.6660.3¢+$2.97

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$107.85

Value

$107.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

Both legs:

Up$56.551.4¢+$14.45

Down$51.3549.4¢-$14.48

BoneOhio

Invested

$105

Value

$99.83

PnL

-$5.17

Record

74%

910-315 (1225)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$102

Value

$96.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.23

Value

$90.11

PnL

-$6.63

Record

54%

3834-3208 (7042)

Both legs:

Up$40.3752.4¢+$12.37

Down$55.9747.2¢-$19.01

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$75.1

Value

$75.85

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$75.15

Value

$75.17

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$105.56

Value

$71.73

PnL

-$33.83

Record

53%

568-507 (1075)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.75

Value

$36.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

44%

94-120 (214)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.89

Value

$28.45

PnL

-$3.44

Record

37%

415-693 (1108)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.92

Value

$25.66

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$17.3

PnL

-$1.7

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$18.04

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$1.39

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$1.65

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.3

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$2.33

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$0.63

Record

47%

1308-1484 (2792)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.