Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 34% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
32
Up 35%
$3.4K
$-3.1K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 32 top traders (34%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 30.7¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 67.7¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 49¢ | $566.72 | $588.37 | +$66.15 | 57% 4456-3312 (7768) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.3¢ | $651.73 | $529.29 | -$121.04 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $517.06 | $500 | -$11.86 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 34¢ | $185.89 | $505 | +$319.11 | 46% 718-833 (1551) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.6¢ | $265.33 | $282.2 | +$16.87 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 57.1¢ | $108.45 | $190 | +$81.55 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Upavg 52¢ | $178.36 | — | -$178.36 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 52.7¢ | $197.85 | $139.5 | -$3.36 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $109.2 | $130 | +$34.75 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $144.25 | $120 | -$20.25 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $36.51 | $82.97 | +$46.46 | 50% 3943-3950 (7893) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $62.4 | — | -$62.4 | 52% 527-487 (1014) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $56.7 | $60 | +$3.3 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $50.8 | $60 | +$9.2 | 48% 658-722 (1380) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $80.81 | $54.33 | +$17.21 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $34.76 | $53.61 | +$18.85 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 33.8¢ | $101.49 | — | -$101.49 | 38% 578-951 (1529) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $16.53 | $37.21 | +$20.68 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 40.1¢ | $27.05 | $36.05 | +$15.54 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $20.99 | — | -$20.99 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $7.56 | $12 | +$4.44 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $9 | $6.13 | -$2.87 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
Invested
$1,040.52
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$1,642.58
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$566.72
Value
$588.37
PnL
+$66.15
Record
57%
4456-3312 (7768)
Invested
$651.73
Value
$529.29
PnL
-$121.04
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$517.06
Value
$500
PnL
-$11.86
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$185.89
Value
$505
PnL
+$319.11
Record
46%
718-833 (1551)
Invested
$265.33
Value
$282.2
PnL
+$16.87
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$108.45
Value
$190
PnL
+$81.55
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
Invested
$178.36
Value
—
PnL
-$178.36
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$197.85
Value
$139.5
PnL
-$3.36
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$109.2
Value
$130
PnL
+$34.75
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
Invested
$144.25
Value
$120
PnL
-$20.25
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$36.51
Value
$82.97
PnL
+$46.46
Record
50%
3943-3950 (7893)
Invested
$62.4
Value
—
PnL
-$62.4
Record
52%
527-487 (1014)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$60
PnL
+$3.3
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$50.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$9.2
Record
48%
658-722 (1380)
ohioism<$100Invested
$80.81
Value
$54.33
PnL
+$17.21
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$34.76
Value
$53.61
PnL
+$18.85
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$101.49
Value
—
PnL
-$101.49
Record
38%
578-951 (1529)
Invested
$16.53
Value
$37.21
PnL
+$20.68
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$27.05
Value
$36.05
PnL
+$15.54
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$20.99
Value
—
PnL
-$20.99
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$12
PnL
+$4.44
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
Invested
$9
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$2.87
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $588.37
CrouchPredictions
Down — $529.29
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $505
stepahead
Down — $282.2
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $190
Little-big
CTRUp — $0