Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 84%
1 arb excluded
$4.9K
$138.78
Smart Money Signal
22 of 26 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 93.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$43.19 | 57% 4456-3312 (7768) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 78.4¢ | $439.18 | $540.49 | +$101.31 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $508.4 | $500 | +$3.3 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 79.1¢ | $390.86 | $489.33 | +$98.47 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 90¢ | $186 | $206.67 | +$20.67 | 36% 190-337 (527) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 74.9¢ | $197.5 | $218.41 | +$20.9 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $189.45 | $191.52 | +$2.07 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $99.45 | $191.52 | +$92.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 66.7¢ | $204.44 | $171.17 | -$3.57 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
 gabigol | Upavg 90.7¢ | $136.24 | $150.16 | +$13.92 | 54% 164-142 (306) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $44.45 | $55.25 | +$10.8 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 83.8¢ | $62.36 | $50.14 | -$12.21 | 47% 716-816 (1532) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 70.8¢ | $35.4 | $50 | +$14.6 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 94.9¢ | $48.58 | $40.3 | -$8.28 | 46% 718-833 (1551) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $27.1 | $40 | +$12.9 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $32.54 | $30 | -$2.54 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $26.11 | $31.08 | +$4.97 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $24.38 | $49.18 | +$24.8 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $20 | +$7.2 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.8¢ | $35.85 | — | -$35.85 | 49% 265-272 (537) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $11.59 | $18.23 | +$6.64 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $10 | +$1.6 | 48% 658-722 (1380) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $5 | +$0.8 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
IM imoore-40CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 90% 226-24 (250) |
Invested
$1,495.44
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$43.19
Record
57%
4456-3312 (7768)
Invested
$439.18
Value
$540.49
PnL
+$101.31
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$508.4
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.3
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$390.86
Value
$489.33
PnL
+$98.47
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$186
Value
$206.67
PnL
+$20.67
Record
36%
190-337 (527)
Invested
$197.5
Value
$218.41
PnL
+$20.9
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$189.45
Value
$191.52
PnL
+$2.07
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$204.44
Value
$171.17
PnL
-$3.57
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
gabigolInvested
$136.24
Value
$150.16
PnL
+$13.92
Record
54%
164-142 (306)
Invested
$44.45
Value
$55.25
PnL
+$10.8
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$62.36
Value
$50.14
PnL
-$12.21
Record
47%
716-816 (1532)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$35.4
Value
$50
PnL
+$14.6
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
Invested
$48.58
Value
$40.3
PnL
-$8.28
Record
46%
718-833 (1551)
Invested
$27.1
Value
$40
PnL
+$12.9
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
Invested
$32.54
Value
$30
PnL
-$2.54
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$26.11
Value
$31.08
PnL
+$4.97
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
Invested
$24.38
Value
$49.18
PnL
+$24.8
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.2
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$35.85
Value
—
PnL
-$35.85
Record
49%
265-272 (537)
Invested
$11.59
Value
$18.23
PnL
+$6.64
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.6
Record
48%
658-722 (1380)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
90%
226-24 (250)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Up — $1.5K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $540.49
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
CrouchPredictions
Up — $489.33
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $206.67
stepahead
Up — $218.41
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $171.17
gabigol
Up — $150.16