Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
41
Up 36%
2 arb excluded
$6.5K
-$981.6
Smart Money Signal
15 of 41 top traders (37%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 68.1¢ | $2.3K | — | $-2.1K | 51% 1602-1552 (3154) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 34.8¢ | $898.69 | $2.6K | +$1.7K | 66% 1696-855 (2551) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 65.3¢ | $743.63 | — | -$743.63 | 57% 4445-3303 (7748) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 94.2¢ | $576 | $611.65 | +$35.65 | 36% 188-336 (524) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 33.7¢ | $426.43 | — | -$426.43 | 54% 3817-3196 (7013) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $519.29 | $490 | -$5.39 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $241.93 | $490 | +$244.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $252.35 | — | -$249.59 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 69.6¢ | $206.84 | — | -$206.84 | 46% 550-646 (1196) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $339.82 | $373 | +$33.18 | 16% 178-961 (1139) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $240.65 | $398.83 | +$158.18 | 49% 255-268 (523) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.2¢ | $177.51 | — | -$177.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 15.8¢ | $63.14 | $398.83 | +$335.69 | |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $308.5 | $337.03 | +$28.53 | 29% 44-110 (154) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 7.6¢ | $99.78 | $312.8 | +$651.22 | 46% 699-813 (1512) |
AL almach | Downavg 11.3¢ | $120.4 | $259.77 | +$579.23 | 47% 700-792 (1492) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 27¢ | $68.78 | $255 | +$186.22 | 47% 1145-1296 (2441) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | 50% 216-217 (433) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 40.8¢ | $96.5 | $170.03 | +$76.28 | 44% 1117-1407 (2524) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 48.7¢ | $143.99 | $145.83 | +$6.19 | 52% 3880-3635 (7515) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 70¢ | $70 | $100 | +$30 | 74% 880-306 (1186) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $83.3 | $91.51 | +$8.21 | 22% 209-752 (961) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.1¢ | $90.28 | $86.42 | +$2.37 | 67% 1947-979 (2926) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $59.06 | — | -$59.06 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 44.6¢ | $100.71 | $77.77 | +$49.96 | 62% 2224-1373 (3597) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.7¢ | $48.12 | — | -$26.76 | 48% 1113-1213 (2326) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 5.5¢ | $182.02 | — | +$444.87 | 50% 3925-3931 (7856) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $23.42 | $39.56 | +$16.14 | 48% 644-706 (1350) |
Invested
$2,260.8
Value
—
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
51%
1602-1552 (3154)
Invested
$898.69
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
66%
1696-855 (2551)
Invested
$743.63
Value
—
PnL
-$743.63
Record
57%
4445-3303 (7748)
Invested
$576
Value
$611.65
PnL
+$35.65
Record
36%
188-336 (524)
Invested
$426.43
Value
—
PnL
-$426.43
Record
54%
3817-3196 (7013)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$519.29
Value
$490
PnL
-$5.39
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.84
Value
—
PnL
-$206.84
Record
46%
550-646 (1196)
NIULAI4Invested
$339.82
Value
$373
PnL
+$33.18
Record
16%
178-961 (1139)
Invested
$240.65
Value
$398.83
PnL
+$158.18
Record
49%
255-268 (523)
Both legs:
Invested
$308.5
Value
$337.03
PnL
+$28.53
Record
29%
44-110 (154)
Invested
$99.78
Value
$312.8
PnL
+$651.22
Record
46%
699-813 (1512)
Invested
$120.4
Value
$259.77
PnL
+$579.23
Record
47%
700-792 (1492)
Invested
$68.78
Value
$255
PnL
+$186.22
Record
47%
1145-1296 (2441)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$180
Record
50%
216-217 (433)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$96.5
Value
$170.03
PnL
+$76.28
Record
44%
1117-1407 (2524)
Invested
$143.99
Value
$145.83
PnL
+$6.19
Record
52%
3880-3635 (7515)
BoneOhioInvested
$70
Value
$100
PnL
+$30
Record
74%
880-306 (1186)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$83.3
Value
$91.51
PnL
+$8.21
Record
22%
209-752 (961)
Invested
$90.28
Value
$86.42
PnL
+$2.37
Record
67%
1947-979 (2926)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$59.06
Value
—
PnL
-$59.06
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$100.71
Value
$77.77
PnL
+$49.96
Record
62%
2224-1373 (3597)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$48.12
Value
—
PnL
-$26.76
Record
48%
1113-1213 (2326)
Invested
$182.02
Value
—
PnL
+$444.87
Record
50%
3925-3931 (7856)
Invested
$23.42
Value
$39.56
PnL
+$16.14
Record
48%
644-706 (1350)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
RLWG
Down — $2.6K
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $611.65
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
NIULAI4
Down — $373
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded