Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$21.6K
$588.88
Smart Money Signal
32 of 48 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL almach | Upavg 72.9¢ | $3.5K | $4.5K | +$991.13 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 76.4¢ | $2.6K | $3.3K | +$752.83 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
BO bosona | Upavg 75.4¢ | $2.5K | $3.3K | +$755.98 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$31.12 | 98% 1899-39 (1938) |
7E 0x7e5d...c4c3 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$371.32 | — |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 40.1¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 67% 1664-818 (2482) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84.5¢ | $903.86 | $849.71 | -$54.15 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 69¢ | $737.08 | $759.36 | +$23.97 | 35% 179-329 (508) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $649.15 | $876.47 | +$227.32 | 38% 459-750 (1209) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $569.78 | $548.14 | -$21.64 | 53% 1134-1003 (2137) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 80.4¢ | $440.79 | $548.14 | +$107.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.6¢ | $128.99 | — | -$128.99 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 76.1¢ | $601.24 | $531.47 | -$50.88 | 57% 4408-3274 (7682) |
C3 0xc387...e4f4 | Upavg 82.3¢ | $410.32 | $416.91 | +$6.59 | — |
44 0x4483...54c6 | Upavg 89.3¢ | $273.12 | $306 | +$32.88 | — |
88 0x8852...c569 | Upavg 82.2¢ | $345.01 | $419.52 | +$74.51 | — |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 98.7¢ | $319.79 | $250 | -$69.79 | 57% 48-36 (84) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 69¢ | $195.74 | $269.99 | +$74.25 | 44% 990-1249 (2239) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 82¢ | $218.34 | $221.29 | +$2.95 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
03 0x037b...9182 | Upavg 87¢ | $199.6 | $156.95 | -$27.37 | — |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 61.9¢ | $127.74 | $174.99 | +$47.25 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
42 0x424e...263b | Upavg 72.1¢ | $134.56 | $153.89 | +$19.33 | — |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 68.4¢ | $159.38 | $150 | -$9.38 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
F8 0xf8af...54c6 | Upavg 86.7¢ | $140.94 | $162.62 | +$21.69 | — |
 ohioism | Upavg 75.7¢ | $120.28 | $155 | +$34.72 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 83.2¢ | $91.45 | $100 | +$8.55 | 47% 593-667 (1260) |
06 0x06b2...9f35<$100 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $47.05 | $80 | +$32.95 | — |
Invested
$3,497.99
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$991.13
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$2,582.58
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$752.83
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$2,511.58
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$755.98
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$1,912.91
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$31.12
Record
98%
1899-39 (1938)
Invested
$1,298.68
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$371.32
Record
—
Invested
$1,493.31
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
67%
1664-818 (2482)
Invested
$903.86
Value
$849.71
PnL
-$54.15
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$737.08
Value
$759.36
PnL
+$23.97
Record
35%
179-329 (508)
Invested
$649.15
Value
$876.47
PnL
+$227.32
Record
38%
459-750 (1209)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$569.78
Value
$548.14
PnL
-$21.64
Record
53%
1134-1003 (2137)
Both legs:
Invested
$601.24
Value
$531.47
PnL
-$50.88
Record
57%
4408-3274 (7682)
Invested
$410.32
Value
$416.91
PnL
+$6.59
Record
—
Invested
$273.12
Value
$306
PnL
+$32.88
Record
—
Invested
$345.01
Value
$419.52
PnL
+$74.51
Record
—
Invested
$319.79
Value
$250
PnL
-$69.79
Record
57%
48-36 (84)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$195.74
Value
$269.99
PnL
+$74.25
Record
44%
990-1249 (2239)
Invested
$218.34
Value
$221.29
PnL
+$2.95
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$199.6
Value
$156.95
PnL
-$27.37
Record
—
BoneOhioInvested
$127.74
Value
$174.99
PnL
+$47.25
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Invested
$134.56
Value
$153.89
PnL
+$19.33
Record
—
Invested
$159.38
Value
$150
PnL
-$9.38
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$140.94
Value
$162.62
PnL
+$21.69
Record
—
ohioismInvested
$120.28
Value
$155
PnL
+$34.72
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$91.45
Value
$100
PnL
+$8.55
Record
47%
593-667 (1260)
Invested
$47.05
Value
$80
PnL
+$32.95
Record
—
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
almach
Up — $4.5K
mo-money
Up — $3.3K
bosona
Up — $3.3K
hoodquant
Up — $1.9K
0x7e5d...c4c3
Up — $1.7K
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $849.71
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $759.36
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $876.47
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded