Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$10.06

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,372

Combined PnL+$105.76

Up4 traders

Total Value$120.64

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$115.82

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Down 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.5¢	$264.73	$372.63	+$107.9	51% 933-914 (1847)
MO mo-money	Downavg 98.1¢	$273.3	$273.84	+$0.54	44% 496-623 (1119)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 86.2¢	$272.65	$265	-$7.65	46% 403-481 (884)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 98¢	$207.76	$209.14	+$1.38	—
BO bosona	Downavg 98.1¢	$146.69	$147.51	+$0.82	50% 3720-3750 (7470)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 27.7¢	$223.15	$118.55	-$104.6	57% 4243-3185 (7428)
ST stepahead<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$57.27	$57.49	+$0.21	54% 3640-3052 (6692)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$15.3	$16.05	+$0.75	65% 1431-763 (2194)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 98.2¢	$9.95	$10.02	+$0.07	53% 887-786 (1673)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 92¢	$10.01	$7.6	-$0.76	62% 1634-1017 (2651)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.25	$4.75	+$2.5	49% 3193-3306 (6499)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 16.5¢	$3.89	$1.18	-$2.71	45% 772-956 (1728)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$6.32	$0.51	-$5.81	48% 468-506 (974)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$3.1	$0.4	-$2.7	58% 1531-1106 (2637)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$264.73

Value

$372.63

PnL

+$107.9

Record

51%

933-914 (1847)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$273.3

Value

$273.84

PnL

+$0.54

Record

44%

496-623 (1119)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$272.65

Value

$265

PnL

-$7.65

Record

46%

403-481 (884)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$207.76

Value

$209.14

PnL

+$1.38

Record

—

bosona

Down

Invested

$146.69

Value

$147.51

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

3720-3750 (7470)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$223.15

Value

$118.55

PnL

-$104.6

Record

57%

4243-3185 (7428)

stepahead<$100

Down

Invested

$57.27

Value

$57.49

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

3640-3052 (6692)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$15.3

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$0.75

Record

65%

1431-763 (2194)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$9.95

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

887-786 (1673)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$10.01

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.76

Record

62%

1634-1017 (2651)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

3193-3306 (6499)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$2.71

Record

45%

772-956 (1728)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$5.81

Record

48%

468-506 (974)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$2.7

Record

58%

1531-1106 (2637)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Down 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.