Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Up 35%
5 arb excluded
$10.5K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 23 top traders (35%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWG | Downavg 53.7¢ | $1.4K | $2.6K | +$1.2K | 68% 1595-745 (2340) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.7K | +$656.38 | 3% 11-422 (433) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $749.9 | $1.3K | +$523.12 | 31% 137-309 (446) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 50.9¢ | $514.3 | $1.0K | +$496.61 | 14% 113-691 (804) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $1.0K | $804.45 | -$207.26 | 50% 3633-3676 (7309) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $404.56 | $804.45 | +$399.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.2¢ | $607.15 | — | -$607.15 | |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $839.41 | $611.05 | -$228.37 | 43% 412-543 (955) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.2¢ | $239.69 | $611.05 | +$371.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.3¢ | $599.72 | — | -$599.72 | |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 35.7¢ | $872.81 | — | -$872.81 | 43% 402-534 (936) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $603.17 | $542.23 | -$60.95 | 54% 3564-2981 (6545) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $212.98 | $542.23 | +$329.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.4¢ | $390.19 | — | -$390.19 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 47.3¢ | $792.72 | — | -$648.86 | 52% 759-690 (1449) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $505.76 | $337.48 | -$168.28 | 45% 336-405 (741) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.4¢ | $109.3 | $337.48 | +$228.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $396.45 | — | -$396.45 | |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $402.37 | $397.96 | -$4.41 | 57% 4163-3119 (7282) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.3¢ | $152.44 | $397.96 | +$245.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $249.93 | — | -$249.93 | |
AD adururu | Downavg 22.6¢ | $70.58 | $312.5 | +$241.92 | 2% 6-257 (263) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $302.92 | $305.98 | +$3.06 | 98% 1317-27 (1344) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $145.79 | $295 | +$149.21 | 45% 632-786 (1418) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $40.33 | $82.31 | +$41.98 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.8¢ | $96.32 | — | -$79.07 | 44% 640-816 (1456) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $49.55 | $55.95 | +$6.4 | 52% 3336-3106 (6442) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $23.86 | $46.83 | +$22.97 | 4% 12-299 (311) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $56.43 | $57 | +$0.57 | 74% 459-159 (618) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $101.3 | $46.53 | -$13.32 | 61% 1366-863 (2229) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $35 | $50 | +$15 | 49% 3025-3129 (6154) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $43.66 | $25 | -$18.66 | 65% 1212-648 (1860) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $43.07 | — | -$43.07 | 47% 373-414 (787) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $18.9 | $15 | -$3.9 | 59% 837-582 (1419) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $59.34 | — | +$1.05 | 59% 1284-909 (2193) |
Invested
$1,386.35
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
68%
1595-745 (2340)
Invested
$1,009.05
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$656.38
Record
3%
11-422 (433)
Invested
$749.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$523.12
Record
31%
137-309 (446)
AtomforgeInvested
$514.3
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$496.61
Record
14%
113-691 (804)
Invested
$1,011.71
Value
$804.45
PnL
-$207.26
Record
50%
3633-3676 (7309)
Both legs:
Invested
$839.41
Value
$611.05
PnL
-$228.37
Record
43%
412-543 (955)
Both legs:
Invested
$872.81
Value
—
PnL
-$872.81
Record
43%
402-534 (936)
Invested
$603.17
Value
$542.23
PnL
-$60.95
Record
54%
3564-2981 (6545)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$792.72
Value
—
PnL
-$648.86
Record
52%
759-690 (1449)
Invested
$505.76
Value
$337.48
PnL
-$168.28
Record
45%
336-405 (741)
Both legs:
Invested
$402.37
Value
$397.96
PnL
-$4.41
Record
57%
4163-3119 (7282)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.58
Value
$312.5
PnL
+$241.92
Record
2%
6-257 (263)
Invested
$302.92
Value
$305.98
PnL
+$3.06
Record
98%
1317-27 (1344)
Invested
$145.79
Value
$295
PnL
+$149.21
Record
45%
632-786 (1418)
Invested
$40.33
Value
$82.31
PnL
+$41.98
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$96.32
Value
—
PnL
-$79.07
Record
44%
640-816 (1456)
Invested
$49.55
Value
$55.95
PnL
+$6.4
Record
52%
3336-3106 (6442)
Invested
$23.86
Value
$46.83
PnL
+$22.97
Record
4%
12-299 (311)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$56.43
Value
$57
PnL
+$0.57
Record
74%
459-159 (618)
Invested
$101.3
Value
$46.53
PnL
-$13.32
Record
61%
1366-863 (2229)
Invested
$35
Value
$50
PnL
+$15
Record
49%
3025-3129 (6154)
Invested
$43.66
Value
$25
PnL
-$18.66
Record
65%
1212-648 (1860)
Invested
$43.07
Value
—
PnL
-$43.07
Record
47%
373-414 (787)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$15
PnL
-$3.9
Record
59%
837-582 (1419)
Invested
$59.34
Value
—
PnL
+$1.05
Record
59%
1284-909 (2193)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
Down — $2.6K
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $1.7K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $1.3K
Atomforge
Down — $1.0K
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded