Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.8K

Combined PnL

$11.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 51 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down40 traders

Total Value$48.6K

Total Shares48,589

Combined PnL+$13.3K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,755

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1a5de81b8313e63ef64aD72CdcC60FDc00610543-1775560822430	Downavg 71.8¢	$22.6K	$8.1K	+$6.8K	— 9-2 (11)
RL RLWG	Downavg 71¢	$5.0K	$7.0K	+$2.0K	50% 8054-8063 (16117)
LI Liquidifier	Downavg 75.2¢	$4.9K	$6.0K	+$1.1K	50% 1107-1125 (2232)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 78.1¢	$15.6K	$5.5K	+$2.4K	53% 482-430 (912)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 89.7¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$573.51	57% 72468-55140 (127608)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 75¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	+$927.48	53% 2044-1837 (3881)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 83.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$91.11	57% 10500-7875 (18375)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 73.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$159.31	77% 205-62 (267)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 82.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$14.21	56% 15057-11806 (26863)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30.43	93% 24799-1832 (26631)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 26¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	54% 15469-13357 (28826)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 82.6¢	$975.2	$1.2K	+$205.05	58% 6030-4389 (10419)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 83¢	$775.23	$767.3	-$7.93	47% 1961-2218 (4179)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 78.6¢	$801.38	$759.99	-$2.8	54% 14612-12482 (27094)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 90.9¢	$648.07	$667.98	+$19.91	54% 46535-38924 (85459)
Atomforge	Downavg 74.3¢	$562.46	$660.64	+$98.18	64% 4469-2475 (6944)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 87.2¢	$763.56	$541.45	-$222.11	73% 95141-35799 (130940)
JO JocJo	Downavg 77.6¢	$741.11	$576.01	+$157.35	51% 965-909 (1874)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 74.6¢	$391.75	$480.12	+$88.37	68% 1747-833 (2580)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Downavg 86.9¢	$361	$415.4	+$54.4	46% 483-557 (1040)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 81.5¢	$376.38	$374.48	-$1.9	51% 10110-9708 (19818)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 95¢	$552.4	$301	-$131.51	48% 23599-25890 (49489)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 82.1¢	$264.15	$268	+$3.85	26% 8847-25291 (34138)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 82.6¢	$275.44	$274.98	-$0.46	57% 6818-5056 (11874)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$270.9	$235.85	-$35.06	60% 7791-5089 (12880)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.9¢	$160.03	$235.85	+$75.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$110.88	—	-$110.88

0x1a5de81b8313e63ef64aD72CdcC60FDc00610543-1775560822430

Down

Invested

$22,609.7

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

—

9-2 (11)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$5,030.96

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

8054-8063 (16117)

Liquidifier

Down

Invested

$4,896.53

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

1107-1125 (2232)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$15,576.62

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

53%

482-430 (912)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$3,915.23

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$573.51

Record

57%

72468-55140 (127608)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$3,580.37

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$927.48

Record

53%

2044-1837 (3881)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$2,179.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$91.11

Record

57%

10500-7875 (18375)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,660.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$159.31

Record

77%

205-62 (267)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,731.09

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$14.21

Record

56%

15057-11806 (26863)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,405.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.43

Record

93%

24799-1832 (26631)

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$1,218.7

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

15469-13357 (28826)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$975.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$205.05

Record

58%

6030-4389 (10419)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$775.23

Value

$767.3

PnL

-$7.93

Record

47%

1961-2218 (4179)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$801.38

Value

$759.99

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

14612-12482 (27094)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$648.07

Value

$667.98

PnL

+$19.91

Record

54%

46535-38924 (85459)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$562.46

Value

$660.64

PnL

+$98.18

Record

64%

4469-2475 (6944)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$763.56

Value

$541.45

PnL

-$222.11

Record

73%

95141-35799 (130940)

JocJo

Down

Invested

$741.11

Value

$576.01

PnL

+$157.35

Record

51%

965-909 (1874)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$391.75

Value

$480.12

PnL

+$88.37

Record

68%

1747-833 (2580)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down

Invested

$361

Value

$415.4

PnL

+$54.4

Record

46%

483-557 (1040)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$376.38

Value

$374.48

PnL

-$1.9

Record

51%

10110-9708 (19818)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$552.4

Value

$301

PnL

-$131.51

Record

48%

23599-25890 (49489)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$264.15

Value

$268

PnL

+$3.85

Record

26%

8847-25291 (34138)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$275.44

Value

$274.98

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

6818-5056 (11874)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$270.9

Value

$235.85

PnL

-$35.06

Record

60%

7791-5089 (12880)

Both legs:

Down$160.0367.9¢+$75.82

Up$110.8833¢-$110.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 51 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x3a2d396f...92c7f5

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793624400

Traders in this Market

0x1a5de81b8313e63ef64aD72CdcC60FDc00610543-1775560822430

Down — $8.1K

+$6.8K

RLWG

Down — $7.0K

+$2.0K

Liquidifier

Down — $6.0K

+$1.1K

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $5.5K

+$2.4K

uninformedfloww

Down — $3.3K

-$573.51

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $2.9K

+$927.48

trdyugiolkw

Down — $2.1K

-$91.11

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.8K

+$159.31

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.7K

-$14.21

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$30.43

Trade on Polymarket