Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$70.07

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,756

Combined PnL+$503.67

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,476

Combined PnL-$573.74

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$959.1	$823.97	-$135.13	56% 15057-11806 (26863)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.8¢	$249.56	—	-$249.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.1¢	$709.54	$823.97	+$114.43
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 78.4¢	$430.32	$410.55	-$19.77	57% 10500-7875 (18375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.4¢	$108.39	—	-$108.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.4¢	$321.93	$410.55	+$88.62
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 65.7¢	$394.36	$600	+$205.64	48% 23599-25890 (49489)
wowitsamazingCTR	Downavg 37.6¢	$264.6	—	-$264.6	57% 12788-9514 (22302)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 26.3¢	$202.08	$120.61	-$81.47	26% 8847-25291 (34138)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.3¢	$134.94	—	-$134.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$67.14	$120.61	+$53.47
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$184.79	$193.09	+$8.3	60% 7791-5089 (12880)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.5¢	$59.67	—	-$59.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$125.12	$193.09	+$67.97
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$181.48	$205	+$23.52	47% 1961-2218 (4179)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.2¢	$160.4	$205	+$44.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.5¢	$21.08	—	-$21.08
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 47.7¢	$221.91	—	-$221.91	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$84.46	$89.64	+$5.18	54% 15469-13357 (28826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.7¢	$30.59	—	-$30.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$53.87	$89.64	+$35.77
PB PBot-5	Upavg 71.5¢	$157.07	$211.13	+$54.06	53% 8816-7827 (16643)
FA FatSlag	Upavg 50.7¢	$100	$197.09	+$97.09	49% 9461-9954 (19415)
GO GoodRecipientARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$92.9	$100	+$7.1	44% 689-889 (1578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$68.9	$100	+$31.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$24	—	-$24
RL RLWGARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$68.19	$95.31	+$27.11	50% 8054-8063 (16117)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$51.79	$95.31	+$43.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.5¢	$16.4	—	-$16.4
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 19.4¢	$39.32	—	-$39.32	54% 14612-12482 (27094)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$108.27	$104.19	-$4.08	66% 127674-65674 (193348)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.5¢	$76.53	$104.19	+$27.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$31.74	—	-$31.74
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 91.5¢	$83.98	$74.47	-$9.52	52% 91785-86162 (177947)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.5¢	$68.11	$74.47	+$6.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.4¢	$15.87	—	-$15.87
MayorMamdani	Upavg 74.3¢	$80.24	$107.99	+$27.76	54% 46535-38924 (85459)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$84.04	$78.21	+$27.08	64% 25816-14363 (40179)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 73.6¢	$135.1	$91.59	+$20.73	50% 37324-36757 (74081)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 83.1¢	$75.16	$73.44	-$1.72	61% 96445-60801 (157246)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$59.67	$65	+$5.33	58% 61386-44825 (106211)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$49.15	$60	+$10.85	63% 40915-23546 (64461)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 87¢	$39.65	$44.22	+$4.57	51% 10110-9708 (19818)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97¢	$50.33	$51.89	+$1.56	93% 24799-1832 (26631)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 80¢	$40	$50	+$10	74% 103436-36619 (140055)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$959.1

Value

$823.97

PnL

-$135.13

Record

56%

15057-11806 (26863)

Both legs:

Down$249.5622.8¢-$249.56

Up$709.5486.1¢+$114.43

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$430.32

Value

$410.55

PnL

-$19.77

Record

57%

10500-7875 (18375)

Both legs:

Down$108.3916.4¢-$108.39

Up$321.9378.4¢+$88.62

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$394.36

Value

$600

PnL

+$205.64

Record

48%

23599-25890 (49489)

wowitsamazingCTR

Down

Invested

$264.6

Value

—

PnL

-$264.6

Record

57%

12788-9514 (22302)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$202.08

Value

$120.61

PnL

-$81.47

Record

26%

8847-25291 (34138)

Both legs:

Down$134.9426.3¢-$134.94

Up$67.1455.7¢+$53.47

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$184.79

Value

$193.09

PnL

+$8.3

Record

60%

7791-5089 (12880)

Both legs:

Down$59.6720.5¢-$59.67

Up$125.1264.8¢+$67.97

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$181.48

Value

$205

PnL

+$23.52

Record

47%

1961-2218 (4179)

Both legs:

Up$160.478.2¢+$44.6

Down$21.088.5¢-$21.08

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$221.91

Value

—

PnL

-$221.91

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$84.46

Value

$89.64

PnL

+$5.18

Record

54%

15469-13357 (28826)

Both legs:

Down$30.5912.7¢-$30.59

Up$53.8760.1¢+$35.77

PBot-5

Invested

$157.07

Value

$211.13

PnL

+$54.06

Record

53%

8816-7827 (16643)

FatSlag

Invested

$100

Value

$197.09

PnL

+$97.09

Record

49%

9461-9954 (19415)

GoodRecipientARB<$100

Invested

$92.9

Value

$100

PnL

+$7.1

Record

44%

689-889 (1578)

Both legs:

Up$68.968.9¢+$31.1

Down$2424¢-$24

RLWGARB<$100

Invested

$68.19

Value

$95.31

PnL

+$27.11

Record

50%

8054-8063 (16117)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.32

Value

—

PnL

-$39.32

Record

54%

14612-12482 (27094)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$108.27

Value

$104.19

PnL

-$4.08

Record

66%

127674-65674 (193348)

Both legs:

Up$76.5373.5¢+$27.66

Down$31.7458¢-$31.74

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$83.98

Value

$74.47

PnL

-$9.52

Record

52%

91785-86162 (177947)

Both legs:

Up$68.1191.5¢+$6.36

Down$15.8733.4¢-$15.87

MayorMamdani

Invested

$80.24

Value

$107.99

PnL

+$27.76

Record

54%

46535-38924 (85459)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$84.04

Value

$78.21

PnL

+$27.08

Record

64%

25816-14363 (40179)

Alpharo28

Invested

$135.1

Value

$91.59

PnL

+$20.73

Record

50%

37324-36757 (74081)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$75.16

Value

$73.44

PnL

-$1.72

Record

61%

96445-60801 (157246)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$59.67

Value

$65

PnL

+$5.33

Record

58%

61386-44825 (106211)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$49.15

Value

$60

PnL

+$10.85

Record

63%

40915-23546 (64461)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$39.65

Value

$44.22

PnL

+$4.57

Record

51%

10110-9708 (19818)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$50.33

Value

$51.89

PnL

+$1.56

Record

93%

24799-1832 (26631)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$50

PnL

+$10

Record

74%

103436-36619 (140055)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x18aa92fe...e912fb

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793619000

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $600

wowitsamazing

Down — $0

Hcrystallash

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

38791873984189

Down — $0

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-5

Up — $211.13

+$54.06

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