Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 72%
4 arb excluded
$8.5K
$-3.3K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 33 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 74% 103405-36611 (140016) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 55.8¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 57% 10491-7867 (18358) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $2.2K | $1.6K | -$663.31 | 93% 24752-1828 (26580) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 73.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$233.17 | 56% 15034-11798 (26832) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 63.9¢ | $837.68 | $778.72 | -$58.96 | 60% 7769-5075 (12844) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $304.77 | $317.41 | +$12.63 | 57% 6811-5048 (11859) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.2¢ | $127.83 | — | -$127.83 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.7¢ | $176.95 | $317.41 | +$140.46 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 54.3¢ | $248.28 | $256 | +$7.72 | 47% 1919-2173 (4092) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 65.6¢ | $205.6 | — | -$205.6 | 50% 8046-8059 (16105) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 87¢ | $318.92 | $210.41 | -$108.51 | 76% 9530-2988 (12518) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 47.4¢ | $260.32 | — | -$260.32 | 26% 8828-25270 (34098) |
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $149.92 | $138.49 | +$11.48 | 50% 37301-36743 (74044) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.3¢ | $84.96 | $138.49 | +$54.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.5¢ | $40.94 | — | -$42.79 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $111.91 | $109 | -$2.91 | 54% 15456-13351 (28807) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36¢ | $38.24 | — | -$38.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.6¢ | $73.67 | $109 | +$35.33 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 47¢ | $126.91 | — | -$126.91 | 51% 4742-4529 (9271) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR | Downavg 14.7¢ | $177 | — | -$177 | 68% 1741-829 (2570) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 65.4¢ | $149.68 | — | -$149.68 | 64% 4453-2462 (6915) |
 ohioism | Upavg 64.3¢ | $101.1 | $153.43 | +$52.33 | 63% 40890-23516 (64406) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $75.3 | $75 | -$0.3 | 58% 61349-44796 (106145) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $90.24 | $68.18 | -$22.06 | 66% 127607-65637 (193244) |
GO GoodRecipientARB<$100 | Upavg 59.9¢ | $69.5 | $70 | +$0.5 | 44% 684-886 (1570) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.9¢ | $41.9 | $70 | +$28.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.5¢ | $27.6 | — | -$27.6 | |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $42.12 | — | -$42.12 | 56% 11283-8989 (20272) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $53.73 | $56.22 | +$2.49 | 65% 112843-59680 (172523) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $77.75 | $86.93 | +$9.18 | 55% 18827-15394 (34221) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $54.83 | $45.9 | -$8.93 | 54% 46499-38873 (85372) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $24.46 | $45 | +$20.54 | 56% 58877-45483 (104360) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $43.64 | $30 | -$13.64 | 58% 38733-27775 (66508) |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
74%
103405-36611 (140016)
Invested
$1,310.25
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
57%
10491-7867 (18358)
Invested
$2,213.31
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$663.31
Record
93%
24752-1828 (26580)
Invested
$1,453.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$233.17
Record
56%
15034-11798 (26832)
Invested
$837.68
Value
$778.72
PnL
-$58.96
Record
60%
7769-5075 (12844)
Invested
$304.77
Value
$317.41
PnL
+$12.63
Record
57%
6811-5048 (11859)
Both legs:
Invested
$248.28
Value
$256
PnL
+$7.72
Record
47%
1919-2173 (4092)
Invested
$205.6
Value
—
PnL
-$205.6
Record
50%
8046-8059 (16105)
NIULAI4Invested
$318.92
Value
$210.41
PnL
-$108.51
Record
76%
9530-2988 (12518)
Invested
$260.32
Value
—
PnL
-$260.32
Record
26%
8828-25270 (34098)
Invested
$149.92
Value
$138.49
PnL
+$11.48
Record
50%
37301-36743 (74044)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.91
Value
$109
PnL
-$2.91
Record
54%
15456-13351 (28807)
Both legs:
Invested
$126.91
Value
—
PnL
-$126.91
Record
51%
4742-4529 (9271)
Invested
$177
Value
—
PnL
-$177
Record
68%
1741-829 (2570)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$149.68
Value
—
PnL
-$149.68
Record
64%
4453-2462 (6915)
ohioismInvested
$101.1
Value
$153.43
PnL
+$52.33
Record
63%
40890-23516 (64406)
Invested
$75.3
Value
$75
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
61349-44796 (106145)
Invested
$90.24
Value
$68.18
PnL
-$22.06
Record
66%
127607-65637 (193244)
Invested
$69.5
Value
$70
PnL
+$0.5
Record
44%
684-886 (1570)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.12
Value
—
PnL
-$42.12
Record
56%
11283-8989 (20272)
Invested
$53.73
Value
$56.22
PnL
+$2.49
Record
65%
112843-59680 (172523)
Invested
$77.75
Value
$86.93
PnL
+$9.18
Record
55%
18827-15394 (34221)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$54.83
Value
$45.9
PnL
-$8.93
Record
54%
46499-38873 (85372)
Invested
$24.46
Value
$45
PnL
+$20.54
Record
56%
58877-45483 (104360)
Invested
$43.64
Value
$30
PnL
-$13.64
Record
58%
38733-27775 (66508)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $1.6K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.2K
1000monkeys
Up — $778.72
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $256
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $210.41
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0