Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 69%
2 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$501.75
Smart Money Signal
20 of 29 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.11 | 93% 24547-1823 (26370) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 76.9¢ | $1.0K | $865.57 | -$147.57 | 56% 15000-11781 (26781) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 70.9¢ | $596.09 | $577.62 | -$18.47 | 74% 1510-542 (2052) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $436.68 | $541.97 | +$105.29 | 54% 15440-13335 (28775) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 81.2¢ | $307.79 | $284.92 | -$22.87 | 47% 1791-2023 (3814) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 73.6¢ | $191.59 | $165 | -$26.59 | 23% 6881-23016 (29897) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 47.2¢ | $184.2 | — | -$184.2 | 56% 8450-6577 (15027) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $183.18 | $154.99 | -$28.19 | 57% 6795-5038 (11833) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.4¢ | $123.04 | $154.99 | +$31.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.6¢ | $60.14 | — | -$60.14 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 77.8¢ | $135.15 | $141 | +$5.85 | 54% 46240-38619 (84859) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Downavg 48¢ | $108.34 | — | -$108.34 | 35% 19186-36234 (55420) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.8¢ | $93.26 | $102 | +$8.74 | 54% 4506-3902 (8408) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $74.02 | $87.49 | +$13.47 | 50% 8018-8042 (16060) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $83.87 | — | -$83.87 | 47% 11778-13375 (25153) |
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100 | Upavg 85.1¢ | $108.67 | $86.16 | -$20.82 | 51% 36962-35404 (72366) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85.1¢ | $73.28 | $86.16 | +$12.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.7¢ | $29.57 | — | -$33.7 | |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $68.9 | $120 | +$51.1 | 53% 2613-2345 (4958) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $56.84 | — | -$56.84 | 57% 71987-54791 (126778) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $60 | — | -$60 | 57% 12778-9504 (22282) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $30.31 | $46.63 | +$16.32 | 44% 6144-7756 (13900) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $24.5 | $40 | +$15.5 | 58% 61251-44735 (105986) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $30.48 | $34.37 | +$3.89 | 66% 127415-65568 (192983) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94.2¢ | $38.67 | $30.23 | -$8.44 | 61% 96286-60723 (157009) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 80.3¢ | $20.75 | $20 | -$0.75 | 55% 18602-15184 (33786) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $15.79 | $18.71 | +$2.92 | 64% 4422-2440 (6862) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $21.2 | $40 | +$18.8 | 63% 40806-23466 (64272) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.3¢ | $9.81 | — | -$9.81 | 52% 91573-85984 (177557) |
Invested
$1,100.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.11
Record
93%
24547-1823 (26370)
Invested
$1,013.15
Value
$865.57
PnL
-$147.57
Record
56%
15000-11781 (26781)
Invested
$596.09
Value
$577.62
PnL
-$18.47
Record
74%
1510-542 (2052)
Invested
$436.68
Value
$541.97
PnL
+$105.29
Record
54%
15440-13335 (28775)
Invested
$307.79
Value
$284.92
PnL
-$22.87
Record
47%
1791-2023 (3814)
Invested
$191.59
Value
$165
PnL
-$26.59
Record
23%
6881-23016 (29897)
Invested
$184.2
Value
—
PnL
-$184.2
Record
56%
8450-6577 (15027)
Invested
$183.18
Value
$154.99
PnL
-$28.19
Record
57%
6795-5038 (11833)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$135.15
Value
$141
PnL
+$5.85
Record
54%
46240-38619 (84859)
Invested
$108.34
Value
—
PnL
-$108.34
Record
35%
19186-36234 (55420)
Invested
$93.26
Value
$102
PnL
+$8.74
Record
54%
4506-3902 (8408)
Invested
$74.02
Value
$87.49
PnL
+$13.47
Record
50%
8018-8042 (16060)
Invested
$83.87
Value
—
PnL
-$83.87
Record
47%
11778-13375 (25153)
Invested
$108.67
Value
$86.16
PnL
-$20.82
Record
51%
36962-35404 (72366)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.9
Value
$120
PnL
+$51.1
Record
53%
2613-2345 (4958)
Invested
$56.84
Value
—
PnL
-$56.84
Record
57%
71987-54791 (126778)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$60
Value
—
PnL
-$60
Record
57%
12778-9504 (22282)
Invested
$30.31
Value
$46.63
PnL
+$16.32
Record
44%
6144-7756 (13900)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$40
PnL
+$15.5
Record
58%
61251-44735 (105986)
Invested
$30.48
Value
$34.37
PnL
+$3.89
Record
66%
127415-65568 (192983)
Invested
$38.67
Value
$30.23
PnL
-$8.44
Record
61%
96286-60723 (157009)
Invested
$20.75
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.75
Record
55%
18602-15184 (33786)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$15.79
Value
$18.71
PnL
+$2.92
Record
64%
4422-2440 (6862)
ohioism<$100Invested
$21.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$18.8
Record
63%
40806-23466 (64272)
Invested
$9.81
Value
—
PnL
-$9.81
Record
52%
91573-85984 (177557)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $865.57
1000monkeys
Up — $577.62
aswfadq1555
Up — $541.97
asdcaxz
Up — $284.92
Hcrystallash
Up — $165
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $141
Little-big
CTRDown — $0