Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 52%
$1.0K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 22 top traders (55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 77.6¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 56% 14924-11728 (26652) |
 ohioism | Upavg 22.6¢ | $99.92 | $418.26 | +$318.34 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $51.95 | — | -$51.95 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Downavg 74.6¢ | $240.45 | — | -$240.45 | 54% 11314-9625 (20939) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Downavg 56.8¢ | $147.5 | — | -$147.5 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $138.41 | $140.21 | +$1.8 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 94.3¢ | $129.24 | $100.01 | -$29.23 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 10.3¢ | $10.87 | $91 | +$80.13 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $69.03 | — | -$69.03 | 58% 38498-27579 (66077) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $19.05 | $68.7 | +$49.65 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $51 | $64.02 | +$13.02 | 61% 96050-60547 (156597) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 15.3¢ | $12.2 | $49.1 | +$36.9 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $43.47 | $43.51 | +$0.04 | 59% 62677-43754 (106431) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $38.1 | — | -$38.1 | 65% 4332-2383 (6715) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $18.99 | $49.97 | +$30.98 | 43% 656-861 (1517) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $15.5 | — | -$15.5 | 68% 1708-799 (2507) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | — | -$4.7 | 58% 51349-37471 (88820) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 68.4¢ | $147.73 | — | -$147.73 | 54% 14578-12427 (27005) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $3.05 | $10 | +$6.95 | 50% 7981-8012 (15993) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.9¢ | $9.6 | — | -$9.6 | 73% 95065-35699 (130764) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.4¢ | $1.92 | — | -$1.92 | 54% 15429-13318 (28747) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $15.4 | — | -$11.78 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
Invested
$1,086.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
56%
14924-11728 (26652)
ohioismInvested
$99.92
Value
$418.26
PnL
+$318.34
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$51.95
Value
—
PnL
-$51.95
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
Invested
$240.45
Value
—
PnL
-$240.45
Record
54%
11314-9625 (20939)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$147.5
Value
—
PnL
-$147.5
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
Invested
$138.41
Value
$140.21
PnL
+$1.8
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
Invested
$129.24
Value
$100.01
PnL
-$29.23
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
Invested
$10.87
Value
$91
PnL
+$80.13
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Invested
$69.03
Value
—
PnL
-$69.03
Record
58%
38498-27579 (66077)
Invested
$19.05
Value
$68.7
PnL
+$49.65
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$51
Value
$64.02
PnL
+$13.02
Record
61%
96050-60547 (156597)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$49.1
PnL
+$36.9
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
Invested
$43.47
Value
$43.51
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
62677-43754 (106431)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$38.1
Value
—
PnL
-$38.1
Record
65%
4332-2383 (6715)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$49.97
PnL
+$30.98
Record
43%
656-861 (1517)
Invested
$15.5
Value
—
PnL
-$15.5
Record
68%
1708-799 (2507)
Invested
$4.7
Value
—
PnL
-$4.7
Record
58%
51349-37471 (88820)
Invested
$147.73
Value
—
PnL
-$147.73
Record
54%
14578-12427 (27005)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.95
Record
50%
7981-8012 (15993)
Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
-$9.6
Record
73%
95065-35699 (130764)
Invested
$1.92
Value
—
PnL
-$1.92
Record
54%
15429-13318 (28747)
Invested
$15.4
Value
—
PnL
-$11.78
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
Up — $418.26
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $140.21
asdaefef
Up — $100.01
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $91
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $68.7