Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.6K

Combined PnL

$15.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 38 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$45.4K

Total Shares45,376

Combined PnL+$17.4K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,155

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 51.5¢	$3.3K	$6.3K	+$3.1K	53% 456-407 (863)
RL RLWG	Downavg 57.9¢	$4.0K	$6.9K	+$2.9K	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 52.1¢	$2.7K	$5.1K	+$2.4K	56% 684-544 (1228)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 61.9¢	$2.0K	$3.2K	+$1.2K	78% 193-56 (249)
Atomforge	Downavg 62.1¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$798.05	64% 4309-2376 (6685)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$676.75	68% 1702-798 (2500)
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05	Downavg 61.7¢	$3.6K	$2.0K	+$54.03	53% 3486-3070 (6556)
AR arbfinder2026	Downavg 49.5¢	$779.9	$1.6K	+$795.01	55% 5316-4296 (9612)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$35.29	93% 24266-1810 (26076)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176	Downavg 66.4¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$621.77	53% 6140-5399 (11539)
AD adururu	Downavg 48.1¢	$1.5K	$3.0K	+$1.6K	53% 388-341 (729)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 85.8¢	$1.2K	$993.75	-$200.22	56% 14907-11713 (26620)
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e	Downavg 46.6¢	$559.07	$1.2K	+$641.39	50% 643-649 (1292)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 60.4¢	$808.56	$1.3K	+$531.15	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Upavg 51.7¢	$776	—	-$776	73% 95064-35693 (130757)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 59.1¢	$452.42	$754.5	+$302.08	54% 1629-1374 (3003)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 57.2¢	$434.99	$749.99	+$314.99	58% 1353-975 (2328)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 43.5¢	$509	$1.1K	+$588.78	57% 12754-9480 (22234)
Bossgirl	Downavg 60.3¢	$615.77	$1.0K	+$405.22	54% 4651-3951 (8602)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 31.9¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.1K	54% 14575-12419 (26994)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 47.7¢	$317.76	$665.72	+$347.96	53% 2035-1832 (3867)
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.1¢	$523.66	$420.3	-$103.36	74% 103028-36547 (139575)
JO JocJo	Downavg 57.9¢	$225.45	$387.74	+$162.29	51% 956-908 (1864)
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529	Downavg 61¢	$226.99	$372.33	+$145.34	54% 843-717 (1560)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 95¢	$204.97	$186.72	-$18.25	52% 91284-85731 (177015)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$3,262.2

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

53%

456-407 (863)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$4,001.82

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$2,661.76

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

56%

684-544 (1228)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$2,006.44

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

78%

193-56 (249)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,360.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$798.05

Record

64%

4309-2376 (6685)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$1,158.25

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$676.75

Record

68%

1702-798 (2500)

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05

Down

Invested

$3,647.55

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$54.03

Record

53%

3486-3070 (6556)

arbfinder2026

Down

Invested

$779.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$795.01

Record

55%

5316-4296 (9612)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,445.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$35.29

Record

93%

24266-1810 (26076)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Down

Invested

$1,228.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$621.77

Record

53%

6140-5399 (11539)

adururu

Down

Invested

$1,451.05

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

388-341 (729)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,193.97

Value

$993.75

PnL

-$200.22

Record

56%

14907-11713 (26620)

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Down

Invested

$559.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$641.39

Record

50%

643-649 (1292)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$808.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$531.15

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Invested

$776

Value

—

PnL

-$776

Record

73%

95064-35693 (130757)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$452.42

Value

$754.5

PnL

+$302.08

Record

54%

1629-1374 (3003)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$434.99

Value

$749.99

PnL

+$314.99

Record

58%

1353-975 (2328)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$509

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$588.78

Record

57%

12754-9480 (22234)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$615.77

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$405.22

Record

54%

4651-3951 (8602)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$1,250.51

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

14575-12419 (26994)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$317.76

Value

$665.72

PnL

+$347.96

Record

53%

2035-1832 (3867)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$523.66

Value

$420.3

PnL

-$103.36

Record

74%

103028-36547 (139575)

JocJo

Down

Invested

$225.45

Value

$387.74

PnL

+$162.29

Record

51%

956-908 (1864)

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529

Down

Invested

$226.99

Value

$372.33

PnL

+$145.34

Record

54%

843-717 (1560)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$204.97

Value

$186.72

PnL

-$18.25

Record

52%

91284-85731 (177015)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 38 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb4602f43...d07132

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793548800

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $6.3K

+$3.1K

RLWG

Down — $6.9K

+$2.9K

3123123121313

Down — $5.1K

+$2.4K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $3.2K

+$1.2K

Atomforge

Down — $2.2K

+$798.05

asabovesobelow2

Down — $1.8K

+$676.75

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05

Down — $2.0K

+$54.03

arbfinder2026

Down — $1.6K

+$795.01

hoodquant

Down — $1.5K

+$35.29

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Down — $1.8K

+$621.77

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