Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$137.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 23 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL+$368.36

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,423

Combined PnL-$505.94

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$164.53	56% 14907-11713 (26620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$276.82	—	-$276.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.3¢	$829.48	$1.3K	+$441.36
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.84	93% 24266-1810 (26076)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 18.3¢	$97.68	—	-$97.68	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 44.5¢	$119.39	—	-$119.39	74% 103028-36547 (139575)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 37¢	$128.45	$325	+$196.55	56% 58613-45263 (103876)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 56¢	$130.31	—	-$130.31	54% 14575-12419 (26994)
GO GoodRecipientARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$85.96	$61.51	-$24.45	43% 655-854 (1509)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$44.6	—	-$44.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$41.36	$61.51	+$20.15
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$86.33	$90.05	+$3.72	62% 44267-27240 (71507)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$30	—	-$30
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$56.33	$90.05	+$33.72
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$37.7	—	-$37.7	65% 112549-59391 (171940)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 57.2¢	$70.92	$124	+$53.08	73% 95064-35693 (130757)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$36.75	—	-$36.75	57% 12754-9480 (22234)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$69.15	$72.43	+$3.28	66% 127066-65377 (192443)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$52.01	$83.12	+$31.11	64% 40618-23301 (63919)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 6.5¢	$8.75	—	+$4.85	51% 20362-19448 (39810)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$62.1	$64.78	+$2.68	61% 96010-60519 (156529)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 36¢	$26.4	$40	+$13.6	58% 61065-44595 (105660)
LI Little-big	Downavg 54¢	$55.13	$102	+$46.87	35% 19111-36114 (55225)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76.6¢	$98.14	$80.18	+$3.56	64% 24825-13713 (38538)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 60¢	$29.9	$25.83	-$4.07	52% 91284-85731 (177015)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$65.68	—	-$30.58	65% 126412-67571 (193983)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 29.8¢	$20.32	—	-$20.32	64% 4309-2376 (6685)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$20.97	$21	+$0.03	55% 45979-38324 (84303)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$21.36	—	-$21.36	55% 50841-41423 (92264)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 22.4¢	$8.95	—	-$8.95	58% 38470-27559 (66029)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$28.95	$35.78	+$6.83	55% 18348-14925 (33273)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,106.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$164.53

Record

56%

14907-11713 (26620)

Both legs:

Up$276.8230.7¢-$276.82

Down$829.4865.3¢+$441.36

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,101.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.84

Record

93%

24266-1810 (26076)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$97.68

Value

—

PnL

-$97.68

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$119.39

Value

—

PnL

-$119.39

Record

74%

103028-36547 (139575)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$128.45

Value

$325

PnL

+$196.55

Record

56%

58613-45263 (103876)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$130.31

Value

—

PnL

-$130.31

Record

54%

14575-12419 (26994)

GoodRecipientARB<$100

Invested

$85.96

Value

$61.51

PnL

-$24.45

Record

43%

655-854 (1509)

Both legs:

Up$44.649.6¢-$44.6

Down$41.3667.2¢+$20.15

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.33

Value

$90.05

PnL

+$3.72

Record

62%

44267-27240 (71507)

Both legs:

Up$3046.2¢-$30

Down$56.3362.6¢+$33.72

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$37.7

Value

—

PnL

-$37.7

Record

65%

112549-59391 (171940)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$70.92

Value

$124

PnL

+$53.08

Record

73%

95064-35693 (130757)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$36.75

Value

—

PnL

-$36.75

Record

57%

12754-9480 (22234)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$69.15

Value

$72.43

PnL

+$3.28

Record

66%

127066-65377 (192443)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$52.01

Value

$83.12

PnL

+$31.11

Record

64%

40618-23301 (63919)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

—

PnL

+$4.85

Record

51%

20362-19448 (39810)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$62.1

Value

$64.78

PnL

+$2.68

Record

61%

96010-60519 (156529)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$26.4

Value

$40

PnL

+$13.6

Record

58%

61065-44595 (105660)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$55.13

Value

$102

PnL

+$46.87

Record

35%

19111-36114 (55225)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$98.14

Value

$80.18

PnL

+$3.56

Record

64%

24825-13713 (38538)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$29.9

Value

$25.83

PnL

-$4.07

Record

52%

91284-85731 (177015)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$65.68

Value

—

PnL

-$30.58

Record

65%

126412-67571 (193983)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$20.32

Value

—

PnL

-$20.32

Record

64%

4309-2376 (6685)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$20.97

Value

$21

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

45979-38324 (84303)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$21.36

Value

—

PnL

-$21.36

Record

55%

50841-41423 (92264)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

—

PnL

-$8.95

Record

58%

38470-27559 (66029)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$28.95

Value

$35.78

PnL

+$6.83

Record

55%

18348-14925 (33273)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 23 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x95acb960...a5fbf2

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793544300

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$164.53

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

RLWG

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $325

tmsd-test

Up — $0

GoodRecipient

Arbitrage — excluded

G-Penis-Monster

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down — $124

+$53.08

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