Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 85%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$189.46
Smart Money Signal
17 of 20 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 37.5¢ | $679.4 | — | -$679.4 | 50% 7925-7961 (15886) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $451.95 | $348.5 | -$103.45 | 57% 10475-7851 (18326) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $149.01 | $348.5 | +$199.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.5¢ | $302.94 | — | -$302.94 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $384.6 | $388.56 | +$3.96 | 93% 24070-1801 (25871) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 77.6¢ | $205.56 | $265.06 | +$59.49 | 54% 14535-12378 (26913) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $117.18 | $207.6 | +$90.42 | 58% 60876-44457 (105333) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 64.9¢ | $103.45 | $110.03 | +$6.58 | 66% 126669-65209 (191878) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 56.8¢ | $88 | $154.9 | +$66.9 | 56% 58449-45097 (103546) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 57¢ | $85.5 | $150 | +$64.5 | 74% 102892-36499 (139391) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $57.6 | $80.97 | +$23.37 | 55% 18159-14741 (32900) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51.6¢ | $63.99 | $124 | +$60.01 | 35% 19006-36004 (55010) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $102.15 | $46.42 | -$18.01 | 64% 24337-13438 (37775) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $75.01 | $56.23 | +$20.15 | 65% 126019-67412 (193431) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $29.39 | $44.7 | +$15.31 | 61% 95670-60340 (156010) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $39 | $75 | +$36 | 57% 12732-9446 (22178) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $35.77 | $73 | +$37.23 | 56% 8198-6333 (14531) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $28.31 | $39.92 | +$11.61 | 52% 90979-85505 (176484) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $30 | $42.46 | +$12.46 | 64% 40441-23156 (63597) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $22.92 | $32.82 | +$9.9 | 63% 52258-31335 (83593) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $18.7 | — | -$18.7 | 43% 634-828 (1462) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $9.5 | $20 | +$10.5 | 58% 51244-37362 (88606) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 58% 38265-27402 (65667) |
Invested
$679.4
Value
—
PnL
-$679.4
Record
50%
7925-7961 (15886)
Invested
$451.95
Value
$348.5
PnL
-$103.45
Record
57%
10475-7851 (18326)
Both legs:
Invested
$384.6
Value
$388.56
PnL
+$3.96
Record
93%
24070-1801 (25871)
Invested
$205.56
Value
$265.06
PnL
+$59.49
Record
54%
14535-12378 (26913)
Invested
$117.18
Value
$207.6
PnL
+$90.42
Record
58%
60876-44457 (105333)
Invested
$103.45
Value
$110.03
PnL
+$6.58
Record
66%
126669-65209 (191878)
Invested
$88
Value
$154.9
PnL
+$66.9
Record
56%
58449-45097 (103546)
BoneOhioInvested
$85.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$64.5
Record
74%
102892-36499 (139391)
Invested
$57.6
Value
$80.97
PnL
+$23.37
Record
55%
18159-14741 (32900)
Invested
$63.99
Value
$124
PnL
+$60.01
Record
35%
19006-36004 (55010)
Invested
$102.15
Value
$46.42
PnL
-$18.01
Record
64%
24337-13438 (37775)
Invested
$75.01
Value
$56.23
PnL
+$20.15
Record
65%
126019-67412 (193431)
Invested
$29.39
Value
$44.7
PnL
+$15.31
Record
61%
95670-60340 (156010)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$39
Value
$75
PnL
+$36
Record
57%
12732-9446 (22178)
Invested
$35.77
Value
$73
PnL
+$37.23
Record
56%
8198-6333 (14531)
Invested
$28.31
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$11.61
Record
52%
90979-85505 (176484)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30
Value
$42.46
PnL
+$12.46
Record
64%
40441-23156 (63597)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$22.92
Value
$32.82
PnL
+$9.9
Record
63%
52258-31335 (83593)
Invested
$18.7
Value
—
PnL
-$18.7
Record
43%
634-828 (1462)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.5
Record
58%
51244-37362 (88606)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
58%
38265-27402 (65667)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
CTRUp — $0
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $388.56
tmsd-test
Down — $265.06
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $207.6
asdaefef
Down — $110.03
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $154.9
BoneOhio
Down — $150
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $80.97
Little-big
Down — $124