Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$737.33

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 23 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,873

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares651

Combined PnL-$534.02

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWGARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$4.4K	$709.12	$-3.7K	50% 7915-7945 (15860)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$407.78	$709.12	+$301.35
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.77	93% 24047-1801 (25848)
BoneOhio	Downavg 96.2¢	$763.69	$772.87	+$9.18	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
NIULAI4	Downavg 65.6¢	$376.87	$569.02	+$192.14	76% 9509-2943 (12452)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 63.3¢	$352.5	$549.26	+$196.76	68% 1669-769 (2438)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$446.64	$414.6	-$32.04	54% 11149-9508 (20657)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$267.45	—	-$267.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$179.2	$414.6	+$235.4
Atomforge	Downavg 58.4¢	$168.43	$272.04	+$103.61	65% 4179-2286 (6465)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 55.6¢	$251.94	$452.96	+$201.02	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 67.7¢	$202.46	—	-$202.46	54% 14530-12375 (26905)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 61.3¢	$109.8	$179.02	+$69.22	57% 12730-9443 (22173)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 75.5¢	$136.14	$122.51	-$13.64	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.5¢	$89.4	—	-$89.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$46.75	$122.51	+$75.76
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 27.5¢	$141.51	$502.75	+$361.24	73% 95048-35679 (130727)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$188.4	$269.35	+$80.95	62% 44057-27075 (71132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.4¢	$152	$269.35	+$117.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 91¢	$36.4	—	-$36.4
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	$97.28	—	-$93.43	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$100.28	$105.53	+$5.25	61% 95475-60241 (155716)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$52.81	—	-$52.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$47.47	$105.53	+$58.06
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 72.3¢	$63.77	—	-$63.77	56% 58419-45082 (103501)
AA aaa221CTR	Upavg 60.3¢	$125.59	—	-$77.58	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$64.61	$80.21	+$15.6	64% 40419-23136 (63555)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 77¢	$61.9	—	-$61.9	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
GO GoodRecipient<$100	Downavg 51¢	$45.9	$89.99	+$44.1	43% 634-825 (1459)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$26.55	—	-$26.55	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$13.3	$32.93	+$19.63	63% 52248-31272 (83520)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$11.22	$11.23	+$0.01	59% 62529-43642 (106171)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	46% 462-532 (994)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$18.03	$36.6	+$18.57	66% 112373-59102 (171475)

RLWGARB<$100

Invested

$4,407.15

Value

$709.12

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

50%

7915-7945 (15860)

Both legs:

Up$3,999.3845.2¢$-4.0K

Down$407.7857.5¢+$301.35

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,269.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.77

Record

93%

24047-1801 (25848)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$763.69

Value

$772.87

PnL

+$9.18

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$376.87

Value

$569.02

PnL

+$192.14

Record

76%

9509-2943 (12452)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$352.5

Value

$549.26

PnL

+$196.76

Record

68%

1669-769 (2438)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$446.64

Value

$414.6

PnL

-$32.04

Record

54%

11149-9508 (20657)

Both legs:

Up$267.4557.5¢-$267.45

Down$179.243.2¢+$235.4

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$168.43

Value

$272.04

PnL

+$103.61

Record

65%

4179-2286 (6465)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$251.94

Value

$452.96

PnL

+$201.02

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$202.46

Value

—

PnL

-$202.46

Record

54%

14530-12375 (26905)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$109.8

Value

$179.02

PnL

+$69.22

Record

57%

12730-9443 (22173)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$136.14

Value

$122.51

PnL

-$13.64

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

Both legs:

Up$89.475.5¢-$89.4

Down$46.7538.2¢+$75.76

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$141.51

Value

$502.75

PnL

+$361.24

Record

73%

95048-35679 (130727)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.4

Value

$269.35

PnL

+$80.95

Record

62%

44057-27075 (71132)

Both legs:

Down$15256.4¢+$117.35

Up$36.491¢-$36.4

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$97.28

Value

—

PnL

-$93.43

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$100.28

Value

$105.53

PnL

+$5.25

Record

61%

95475-60241 (155716)

Both legs:

Up$52.8181.9¢-$52.81

Down$47.4745¢+$58.06

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$63.77

Value

—

PnL

-$63.77

Record

56%

58419-45082 (103501)

aaa221CTR

Invested

$125.59

Value

—

PnL

-$77.58

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$64.61

Value

$80.21

PnL

+$15.6

Record

64%

40419-23136 (63555)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$61.9

Value

—

PnL

-$61.9

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

GoodRecipient<$100

Down

Invested

$45.9

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$44.1

Record

43%

634-825 (1459)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$26.55

Value

—

PnL

-$26.55

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$13.3

Value

$32.93

PnL

+$19.63

Record

63%

52248-31272 (83520)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$11.22

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

62529-43642 (106171)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

46%

462-532 (994)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$18.03

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$18.57

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 23 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1c19ae3f...475359

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793488500

Traders in this Market

RLWG

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-3.7K

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$13.77

BoneOhio

Down — $772.87

+$9.18

NIULAI4

Down — $569.02

+$192.14

asabovesobelow2

Down — $549.26

+$196.76

thesidehustle

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$32.04

Atomforge

Down — $272.04

+$103.61

uninformedfloww

Down — $452.96

+$201.02

tmsd-test

CTR

Up — $0

-$202.46

wowitsamazing

Down — $179.02

+$69.22

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