Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$11.3K
$1.4K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 28 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWG | Downavg 48.3¢ | $3.8K | $6.3K | +$2.5K | 50% 7915-7945 (15860) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$19.12 | 93% 24047-1801 (25848) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Upavg 68.3¢ | $533.76 | — | -$533.76 | 57% 10468-7849 (18317) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 42.2¢ | $431.26 | $542.23 | +$110.98 | 57% 12730-9443 (22173) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 69.4¢ | $593.82 | $522.17 | -$71.64 | 54% 11149-9508 (20657) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $349.25 | $392.34 | +$43.09 | 68% 1669-769 (2438) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $330.14 | $387 | +$56.86 | 76% 9509-2943 (12452) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 65.2¢ | $216.29 | $331.69 | +$115.4 | 57% 71395-54409 (125804) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $230.54 | $276.6 | +$46.06 | 54% 15415-13301 (28716) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 34.6¢ | $436.1 | $206.17 | -$229.93 | 54% 14530-12375 (26905) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85¢ | $175.27 | $206.17 | +$30.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.6¢ | $260.83 | — | -$260.83 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Upavg 53¢ | $277.19 | — | -$277.19 | 58% 60853-44436 (105289) |
 ohioism | Downavg 76.7¢ | $165.95 | $207.63 | +$41.68 | 64% 40419-23136 (63555) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 82.6¢ | $179.5 | $162.53 | -$16.97 | 66% 126616-65192 (191808) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 84.8¢ | $104.99 | $115.06 | +$10.07 | 65% 4179-2286 (6465) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Upavg 35.2¢ | $116.69 | — | -$116.69 | 56% 58419-45082 (103501) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $133.85 | $89.99 | +$22.6 | 64% 24274-13401 (37675) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $87.93 | $76.37 | -$11.56 | 61% 95475-60241 (155716) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $83.18 | $75.67 | -$7.51 | 52% 90943-85477 (176420) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 44.2¢ | $89.9 | $67.9 | -$7.24 | 65% 125977-67395 (193372) |
 BoneOhioCTR | Upavg 56.5¢ | $285.23 | — | -$285.23 | 74% 102879-36496 (139375) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Downavg 24¢ | $24 | $100 | +$76 | 73% 95048-35679 (130727) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR | Upavg 47.3¢ | $147.62 | — | -$147.62 | 46% 462-532 (994) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $41.46 | $29.71 | -$11.75 | 63% 52248-31272 (83520) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $37.94 | — | -$37.94 | 62% 44057-27075 (71132) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $28 | — | -$28 | 58% 38241-27378 (65619) |
Invested
$3,767.64
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
50%
7915-7945 (15860)
Invested
$1,423.88
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$19.12
Record
93%
24047-1801 (25848)
Invested
$533.76
Value
—
PnL
-$533.76
Record
57%
10468-7849 (18317)
wowitsamazingInvested
$431.26
Value
$542.23
PnL
+$110.98
Record
57%
12730-9443 (22173)
Invested
$593.82
Value
$522.17
PnL
-$71.64
Record
54%
11149-9508 (20657)
Invested
$349.25
Value
$392.34
PnL
+$43.09
Record
68%
1669-769 (2438)
NIULAI4Invested
$330.14
Value
$387
PnL
+$56.86
Record
76%
9509-2943 (12452)
Invested
$216.29
Value
$331.69
PnL
+$115.4
Record
57%
71395-54409 (125804)
Invested
$230.54
Value
$276.6
PnL
+$46.06
Record
54%
15415-13301 (28716)
Invested
$436.1
Value
$206.17
PnL
-$229.93
Record
54%
14530-12375 (26905)
Both legs:
Invested
$277.19
Value
—
PnL
-$277.19
Record
58%
60853-44436 (105289)
ohioismInvested
$165.95
Value
$207.63
PnL
+$41.68
Record
64%
40419-23136 (63555)
Invested
$179.5
Value
$162.53
PnL
-$16.97
Record
66%
126616-65192 (191808)
AtomforgeInvested
$104.99
Value
$115.06
PnL
+$10.07
Record
65%
4179-2286 (6465)
Invested
$116.69
Value
—
PnL
-$116.69
Record
56%
58419-45082 (103501)
Invested
$133.85
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$22.6
Record
64%
24274-13401 (37675)
Invested
$87.93
Value
$76.37
PnL
-$11.56
Record
61%
95475-60241 (155716)
Invested
$83.18
Value
$75.67
PnL
-$7.51
Record
52%
90943-85477 (176420)
Invested
$89.9
Value
$67.9
PnL
-$7.24
Record
65%
125977-67395 (193372)
BoneOhioCTRInvested
$285.23
Value
—
PnL
-$285.23
Record
74%
102879-36496 (139375)
Invested
$24
Value
$100
PnL
+$76
Record
73%
95048-35679 (130727)
Invested
$147.62
Value
—
PnL
-$147.62
Record
46%
462-532 (994)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$41.46
Value
$29.71
PnL
-$11.75
Record
63%
52248-31272 (83520)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$37.94
Value
—
PnL
-$37.94
Record
62%
44057-27075 (71132)
Invested
$28
Value
—
PnL
-$28
Record
58%
38241-27378 (65619)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
Down — $6.3K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
trdyugiolkw
CTRUp — $0
wowitsamazing
Down — $542.23
thesidehustle
Down — $522.17
asabovesobelow2
Down — $392.34
NIULAI4
Down — $387
uninformedfloww
Down — $331.69
aswfadq1555
Down — $276.6
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded