Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 38%
4 arb excluded
$7.6K
$1.6K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 25 top traders (32%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$247.99 | 57% 10468-7849 (18317) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.3¢ | $491.97 | — | -$491.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.7¢ | $599.19 | $1.3K | +$739.96 | |
RL RLWG | Downavg 20¢ | $829.75 | $4.1K | +$3.3K | 50% 7915-7945 (15860) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 59.7¢ | $553.52 | — | -$553.52 | 56% 14734-11594 (26328) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 81¢ | $810 | — | -$764.75 | 54% 14530-12375 (26905) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $322.05 | $330.04 | +$8 | 54% 11149-9508 (20657) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.1¢ | $163.38 | — | -$163.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.1¢ | $158.66 | $330.04 | +$171.38 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 64% 58732-33316 (92048) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 32.8¢ | $228.84 | $557.53 | +$353.54 | 57% 71395-54409 (125804) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Upavg 76.3¢ | $186.15 | — | -$186.15 | 62% 44057-27075 (71132) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $499.76 | $509.24 | +$9.48 | 93% 24047-1801 (25848) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.6¢ | $89.07 | — | -$89.07 | 56% 58419-45082 (103501) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $122.79 | $143.85 | +$21.06 | 64% 40419-23136 (63555) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59¢ | $53.9 | — | -$53.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.9¢ | $68.89 | $143.85 | +$74.96 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.3¢ | $35.73 | — | -$35.73 | 63% 52248-31272 (83520) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Upavg 78.8¢ | $108.88 | — | -$108.88 | 58% 60853-44436 (105289) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $94.38 | — | -$94.38 | 74% 102879-36496 (139375) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR | Upavg 75.4¢ | $128.28 | — | -$109.13 | 65% 125977-67395 (193372) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.5¢ | $45.19 | — | -$45.19 | 73% 95048-35679 (130727) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $97.93 | $89.79 | -$8.14 | 66% 126616-65192 (191808) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.5¢ | $34.51 | — | -$34.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.6¢ | $63.42 | $89.79 | +$26.37 | |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $37.5 | — | -$37.5 | 57% 12730-9443 (22173) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $53.53 | — | -$53.53 | 65% 4179-2286 (6465) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $76.15 | $66.66 | -$9.49 | 61% 95475-60241 (155716) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | 35% 18993-35997 (54990) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $18.6 | — | -$18.6 | 43% 634-825 (1459) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $24.25 | — | -$24.25 | 68% 1669-769 (2438) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 14.8¢ | $9.38 | $32.65 | +$23.27 | 52% 90943-85477 (176420) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $20 | +$2.2 | 46% 462-532 (994) |
Invested
$1,091.15
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$247.99
Record
57%
10468-7849 (18317)
Both legs:
Invested
$829.75
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
50%
7915-7945 (15860)
Invested
$553.52
Value
—
PnL
-$553.52
Record
56%
14734-11594 (26328)
Invested
$810
Value
—
PnL
-$764.75
Record
54%
14530-12375 (26905)
Invested
$322.05
Value
$330.04
PnL
+$8
Record
54%
11149-9508 (20657)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
58732-33316 (92048)
Invested
$228.84
Value
$557.53
PnL
+$353.54
Record
57%
71395-54409 (125804)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$186.15
Value
—
PnL
-$186.15
Record
62%
44057-27075 (71132)
Invested
$499.76
Value
$509.24
PnL
+$9.48
Record
93%
24047-1801 (25848)
Invested
$89.07
Value
—
PnL
-$89.07
Record
56%
58419-45082 (103501)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$122.79
Value
$143.85
PnL
+$21.06
Record
64%
40419-23136 (63555)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$35.73
Value
—
PnL
-$35.73
Record
63%
52248-31272 (83520)
Invested
$108.88
Value
—
PnL
-$108.88
Record
58%
60853-44436 (105289)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$94.38
Value
—
PnL
-$94.38
Record
74%
102879-36496 (139375)
Invested
$128.28
Value
—
PnL
-$109.13
Record
65%
125977-67395 (193372)
Invested
$45.19
Value
—
PnL
-$45.19
Record
73%
95048-35679 (130727)
Invested
$97.93
Value
$89.79
PnL
-$8.14
Record
66%
126616-65192 (191808)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
—
PnL
-$37.5
Record
57%
12730-9443 (22173)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$53.53
Value
—
PnL
-$53.53
Record
65%
4179-2286 (6465)
Invested
$76.15
Value
$66.66
PnL
-$9.49
Record
61%
95475-60241 (155716)
Invested
$75
Value
$150
PnL
+$75
Record
35%
18993-35997 (54990)
Invested
$18.6
Value
—
PnL
-$18.6
Record
43%
634-825 (1459)
Invested
$24.25
Value
—
PnL
-$24.25
Record
68%
1669-769 (2438)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$32.65
PnL
+$23.27
Record
52%
90943-85477 (176420)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.2
Record
46%
462-532 (994)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
Down — $4.1K
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $200
uninformedfloww
Down — $557.53
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $509.24
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0