Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$22.78

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,669

Combined PnL+$21.37

Up4 traders

Total Value$12.56

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$1.41

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 58.4¢	$727.28	$766.16	+$38.88	57% 10466-7847 (18313)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 57.1¢	$116.58	$137.28	+$20.7	54% 11125-9485 (20610)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$79.76	$71.28	-$8.48	56% 8168-6307 (14475)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 4.4¢	$36.82	$57.05	+$20.23	63% 52240-31232 (83472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.4¢	$28.25	$29.19	+$0.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.4¢	$8.57	$27.87	+$19.3
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$63.92	$49.6	-$14.32	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$64.82	$45.33	-$19.49	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 67¢	$58.26	$44.1	+$1.13	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$32.25	$42.38	+$10.13	64% 40407-23120 (63527)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$35.85	$41.7	+$5.85	50% 7913-7939 (15852)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$37.55	$40.24	+$2.68	58% 60841-44423 (105264)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$42	$36.56	-$5.44	57% 12728-9441 (22169)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 94¢	$35.52	$27.77	-$7.75	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 57¢	$29.86	$26.31	-$3.55	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 38.3¢	$20.4	$26.13	+$5.74	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$23.75	$18.01	-$5.74	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$13.75	$13.63	-$0.12	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$3.8	$5.25	+$1.45	43% 634-824 (1458)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 25¢	$3.17	$4.31	+$1.14	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.97	+$0.12	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$3	$2.9	-$0.1	65% 4171-2279 (6450)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$1.5	$1.43	-$0.07	68% 1666-769 (2435)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$727.28

Value

$766.16

PnL

+$38.88

Record

57%

10466-7847 (18313)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$116.58

Value

$137.28

PnL

+$20.7

Record

54%

11125-9485 (20610)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$79.76

Value

$71.28

PnL

-$8.48

Record

56%

8168-6307 (14475)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$36.82

Value

$57.05

PnL

+$20.23

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

Both legs:

Invested

$63.92

Value

$49.6

PnL

-$14.32

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$64.82

Value

$45.33

PnL

-$19.49

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$58.26

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$1.13

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$32.25

Value

$42.38

PnL

+$10.13

Record

64%

40407-23120 (63527)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$35.85

Value

$41.7

PnL

+$5.85

Record

50%

7913-7939 (15852)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$37.55

Value

$40.24

PnL

+$2.68

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$42

Value

$36.56

PnL

-$5.44

Record

57%

12728-9441 (22169)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$35.52

Value

$27.77

PnL

-$7.75

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$29.86

Value

$26.31

PnL

-$3.55

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$20.4

Value

$26.13

PnL

+$5.74

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$23.75

Value

$18.01

PnL

-$5.74

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$13.75

Value

$13.63

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

GoodRecipientCTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$1.45

Record

43%

634-824 (1458)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$3.17

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$1.14

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

asabovesobelow2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

68%

1666-769 (2435)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.