Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$156.49
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$4.03 | 59% 62520-43633 (106153) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 76.1¢ | $606.53 | $517.99 | -$88.54 | 57% 10466-7847 (18313) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 89.4¢ | $187 | $174.68 | -$12.32 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $62.15 | — | -$62.15 | 54% 14526-12369 (26895) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 49.1¢ | $73.7 | $150 | +$76.3 | 35% 18983-35988 (54971) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $80.8 | $41 | -$39.8 | 62% 44041-27052 (71093) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30¢ | $48 | — | -$48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80¢ | $32.8 | $41 | +$8.2 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $55.79 | $50.06 | -$5.73 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $45 | $60 | +$15 | 50% 7913-7939 (15852) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $48.86 | $35 | -$13.86 | 58% 60841-44423 (105264) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.1¢ | $23.59 | — | -$23.59 | 63% 52240-31232 (83472) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $38.65 | $44.78 | +$6.13 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $37.03 | $42.52 | +$5.49 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $30.5 | $25 | -$5.5 | 64% 40407-23120 (63527) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $26.5 | — | -$26.5 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $23.41 | $23.67 | +$0.26 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $23.25 | $25.55 | +$2.3 | 74% 102858-36493 (139351) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $30.1 | $42.71 | +$12.62 | 55% 18125-14708 (32833) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $23.5 | — | -$23.5 | 65% 4171-2279 (6450) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $30 | +$15.9 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $11.75 | — | -$11.75 | 68% 1666-769 (2435) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 73% 95047-35677 (130724) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 43% 634-824 (1458) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.3¢ | $4.87 | — | -$4.87 | 65% 125846-67348 (193194) |
Invested
$4,023.98
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$4.03
Record
59%
62520-43633 (106153)
Invested
$606.53
Value
$517.99
PnL
-$88.54
Record
57%
10466-7847 (18313)
Invested
$187
Value
$174.68
PnL
-$12.32
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
Invested
$62.15
Value
—
PnL
-$62.15
Record
54%
14526-12369 (26895)
Invested
$73.7
Value
$150
PnL
+$76.3
Record
35%
18983-35988 (54971)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$80.8
Value
$41
PnL
-$39.8
Record
62%
44041-27052 (71093)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.79
Value
$50.06
PnL
-$5.73
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
Invested
$45
Value
$60
PnL
+$15
Record
50%
7913-7939 (15852)
Invested
$48.86
Value
$35
PnL
-$13.86
Record
58%
60841-44423 (105264)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$23.59
Value
—
PnL
-$23.59
Record
63%
52240-31232 (83472)
Invested
$38.65
Value
$44.78
PnL
+$6.13
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$37.03
Value
$42.52
PnL
+$5.49
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.5
Value
$25
PnL
-$5.5
Record
64%
40407-23120 (63527)
Invested
$26.5
Value
—
PnL
-$26.5
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
$23.41
Value
$23.67
PnL
+$0.26
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.25
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$2.3
Record
74%
102858-36493 (139351)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$42.71
PnL
+$12.62
Record
55%
18125-14708 (32833)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$23.5
Value
—
PnL
-$23.5
Record
65%
4171-2279 (6450)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.9
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$11.75
Value
—
PnL
-$11.75
Record
68%
1666-769 (2435)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
73%
95047-35677 (130724)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
43%
634-824 (1458)
Invested
$4.87
Value
—
PnL
-$4.87
Record
65%
125846-67348 (193194)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.0K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $517.99
thesidehustle
Down — $174.68
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
Little-big
Down — $150
G-Penis-Monster
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50.06
RLWG
Down — $60
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $35
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0