Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Up 75%
2 arb excluded
$994.4
-$0.3
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $321.63 | $343.58 | +$21.94 | 57% 10464-7844 (18308) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.2¢ | $227.45 | $343.58 | +$116.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.1¢ | $94.18 | — | -$94.18 | |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 76.5¢ | $172.41 | $183.7 | +$11.29 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 73¢ | $157.9 | $216.36 | +$58.46 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $77.82 | — | -$77.82 | 56% 8153-6296 (14449) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $60 | $50 | -$10 | 65% 125844-67348 (193192) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68¢ | $34 | $50 | +$16 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26¢ | $26 | — | -$26 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $39.32 | $53.16 | +$13.84 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $35.25 | — | -$35.25 | 57% 12724-9438 (22162) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.4¢ | $18.19 | — | -$18.19 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $50 | +$23.5 | 58% 38198-27356 (65554) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $28.19 | $34.93 | +$6.74 | 56% 58383-45054 (103437) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $16.18 | $23.91 | +$7.73 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $13.55 | $20.67 | +$7.12 | 55% 18106-14696 (32802) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $12.61 | $13.09 | +$0.48 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $5 | +$1.8 | 58% 60824-44408 (105232) |
Invested
$321.63
Value
$343.58
PnL
+$21.94
Record
57%
10464-7844 (18308)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.41
Value
$183.7
PnL
+$11.29
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
Invested
$157.9
Value
$216.36
PnL
+$58.46
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
Invested
$77.82
Value
—
PnL
-$77.82
Record
56%
8153-6296 (14449)
Invested
$60
Value
$50
PnL
-$10
Record
65%
125844-67348 (193192)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.32
Value
$53.16
PnL
+$13.84
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$35.25
Value
—
PnL
-$35.25
Record
57%
12724-9438 (22162)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$18.19
Value
—
PnL
-$18.19
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$23.5
Record
58%
38198-27356 (65554)
Invested
$28.19
Value
$34.93
PnL
+$6.74
Record
56%
58383-45054 (103437)
Invested
$16.18
Value
$23.91
PnL
+$7.73
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
Invested
$13.55
Value
$20.67
PnL
+$7.12
Record
55%
18106-14696 (32802)
Invested
$12.61
Value
$13.09
PnL
+$0.48
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.8
Record
58%
60824-44408 (105232)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Up — $183.7
uninformedfloww
Up — $216.36
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Up — $53.16
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $50
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $34.93