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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

21

Down 33%

Total Value

$237.44

Combined PnL

$96.22

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 21 top traders (33%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders
Total Value$237.44
Total Shares237
Combined PnL+$30.47
Down7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,601
Combined PnL+$65.75
Up — 67%Down — 33%
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Up

Invested

$82.71

Value

$86.47

PnL

+$3.76

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$73.13

Value

$57.97

PnL

+$12.61

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

0X
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100
Up

Invested

$39

Value

$50

PnL

+$11

Record

73%

95047-35677 (130724)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Up

Invested

$24.08

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.92

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

TM
tmsd-test<$100
Up

Invested

$10.92

Value

$13

PnL

+$2.08

Record

54%

14526-12369 (26895)

GO
GoodRecipientCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$24.27

Value

—

PnL

-$24.27

Record

43%

634-824 (1458)

TR
trdyugiolkwCTR
Down

Invested

$980.94

Value

—

PnL

+$116.08

Record

57%

10466-7847 (18313)

IM
imoore-40<$100
Up

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

77%

87-26 (113)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$26.06

Value

—

PnL

-$26.06

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

Atomforge<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

BoneOhioCTR<$100
Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

74%

102858-36493 (139351)

RL
RLWGCTR<$100
Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7913-7939 (15852)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

112365-59078 (171443)

ohioism<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

40407-23120 (63527)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

44041-27052 (71093)

AS
asabovesobelow2<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

1666-769 (2435)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

TH
thesidehustle<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

11125-9485 (20610)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x599424d0...b7a7e1
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1793467800

Traders in this Market

0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $86.47

+$3.76
AA

aaa221

Up — $57.97

+$12.61
0X

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Up — $50

+$11
DV

dvasdkasodk

Up — $25

+$0.92
TM

tmsd-test

Up — $13

+$2.08
GO

GoodRecipient

CTR

Down — $0

-$24.27
TR

trdyugiolkw

CTR

Down — $0

+$116.08
IM

imoore-40

Up — $5

+$0.1

UpandDownSyndrome

CTR

Down — $0

-$26.06
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

+$0
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