Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 48%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 21 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 38.1¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 50% 7907-7935 (15842) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 72.1¢ | $617.18 | — | -$617.18 | 57% 10464-7844 (18308) |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $156.3 | $240.8 | +$84.5 | 57% 12724-9438 (22162) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 3¢ | $5.85 | — | -$5.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.5¢ | $150.45 | $240.8 | +$90.35 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.3¢ | $84.7 | — | -$84.7 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 45.5¢ | $96.75 | $126.41 | +$29.67 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $345 | $439.08 | +$94.08 | 68% 1663-766 (2429) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $51.17 | — | -$51.17 | 35% 18977-35980 (54957) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $107.81 | $176.32 | +$68.51 | 73% 95046-35676 (130722) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $44 | — | -$44 | 56% 58383-45054 (103437) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 50¢ | $72.25 | $102 | +$29.75 | 74% 102835-36488 (139323) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.2¢ | $25.75 | — | -$25.75 | 64% 40387-23103 (63490) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 36.1¢ | $53.15 | $92.19 | +$39.04 | 62% 44015-27038 (71053) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $25.82 | — | -$25.82 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $26.48 | — | -$26.48 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.8¢ | $17.76 | — | -$17.76 | 44% 633-820 (1453) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.72 | — | -$0.72 | 54% 15414-13298 (28712) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $17.36 | $25.23 | +$7.87 | 65% 4158-2273 (6431) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 29.1¢ | $14.75 | $50.64 | +$35.89 | 58% 60824-44408 (105232) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $84.53 | $41.06 | +$25.2 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $14.35 | $36.81 | +$22.46 | 55% 18106-14696 (32802) |
IM imoore-40<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 77% 83-25 (108) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $5.18 | $14 | +$8.82 | 58% 38198-27356 (65554) |
Invested
$1,269.69
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
50%
7907-7935 (15842)
Invested
$617.18
Value
—
PnL
-$617.18
Record
57%
10464-7844 (18308)
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$156.3
Value
$240.8
PnL
+$84.5
Record
57%
12724-9438 (22162)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$84.7
Value
—
PnL
-$84.7
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Invested
$96.75
Value
$126.41
PnL
+$29.67
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
Invested
$345
Value
$439.08
PnL
+$94.08
Record
68%
1663-766 (2429)
Invested
$51.17
Value
—
PnL
-$51.17
Record
35%
18977-35980 (54957)
Invested
$107.81
Value
$176.32
PnL
+$68.51
Record
73%
95046-35676 (130722)
Invested
$44
Value
—
PnL
-$44
Record
56%
58383-45054 (103437)
BoneOhioInvested
$72.25
Value
$102
PnL
+$29.75
Record
74%
102835-36488 (139323)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$25.75
Value
—
PnL
-$25.75
Record
64%
40387-23103 (63490)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$53.15
Value
$92.19
PnL
+$39.04
Record
62%
44015-27038 (71053)
Invested
$25.82
Value
—
PnL
-$25.82
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
Invested
$26.48
Value
—
PnL
-$26.48
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
Invested
$17.76
Value
—
PnL
-$17.76
Record
44%
633-820 (1453)
Invested
$0.72
Value
—
PnL
-$0.72
Record
54%
15414-13298 (28712)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$17.36
Value
$25.23
PnL
+$7.87
Record
65%
4158-2273 (6431)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$50.64
PnL
+$35.89
Record
58%
60824-44408 (105232)
Invested
$84.53
Value
$41.06
PnL
+$25.2
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
Invested
$14.35
Value
$36.81
PnL
+$22.46
Record
55%
18106-14696 (32802)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
77%
83-25 (108)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$14
PnL
+$8.82
Record
58%
38198-27356 (65554)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
wowitsamazing
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $126.41
asabovesobelow2
Up — $439.08
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Up — $176.32
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $102