Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$440.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 24 top traders (54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares15,854

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,569

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Downavg 43¢	$4.1K	$8.7K	+$4.6K	50% 7902-7934 (15836)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 69.4¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$136.6	56% 14697-11576 (26273)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$15.62	93% 23988-1799 (25787)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$29.3	57% 10457-7842 (18299)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$730.74	$1.5K	+$777.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$807.06	—	-$807.06
AS asabovesobelow2CTR	Upavg 40.9¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K	69% 1661-759 (2420)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 40.1¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	77% 9504-2918 (12422)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.34	74% 102820-36477 (139297)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 57.5¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	57% 71256-54324 (125580)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$606.24	$715.8	+$109.56	65% 4152-2267 (6419)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$267.16	$715.8	+$448.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$339.08	—	-$339.08
wowitsamazing	Downavg 41.5¢	$386.3	$899.61	+$513.31	57% 12721-9433 (22154)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 71.9¢	$413.22	$514.93	+$101.71	54% 14517-12356 (26873)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 41.7¢	$115.81	$277.61	+$161.8	54% 15411-13295 (28706)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Upavg 52.5¢	$112	—	-$112	73% 95045-35673 (130718)
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 81.4¢	$154.87	—	-$153.07	51% 20252-19386 (39638)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 22.1¢	$46.83	$98.37	+$51.54	63% 52202-31146 (83348)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.2¢	$12.95	$98.37	+$85.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.1¢	$33.88	—	-$33.88
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$102.86	$73.4	-$29.46	66% 126492-65134 (191626)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.4¢	$56.07	$73.4	+$17.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$46.79	—	-$46.79
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 47.3¢	$63.46	—	-$63.46	35% 18964-35964 (54928)
AA aaa221	Downavg 64.3¢	$170.3	$89.99	-$33.55	64% 24117-13303 (37420)
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$60.44	—	-$60.44	44% 631-818 (1449)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$77.89	—	-$77.89	64% 40361-23086 (63447)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 54¢	$57.35	$80.69	+$23.34	56% 58367-45027 (103394)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$43.04	$40.67	-$2.37	58% 60798-44388 (105186)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$24.4	$40.67	+$16.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$18.64	—	-$18.64
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$28.75	$43.26	+$14.51	62% 43999-27015 (71014)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 75¢	$45.65	—	-$45.65	55% 18070-14671 (32741)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$27.19	—	-$27.19	52% 90849-85392 (176241)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$4,140.96

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

50%

7902-7934 (15836)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$2,135.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$136.6

Record

56%

14697-11576 (26273)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,546.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.62

Record

93%

23988-1799 (25787)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$1,537.79

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$29.3

Record

57%

10457-7842 (18299)

Both legs:

Down$730.7448.4¢+$777.76

Up$807.0654.8¢-$807.06

asabovesobelow2CTR

Invested

$1,830.24

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

69%

1661-759 (2420)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$1,659.95

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

77%

9504-2918 (12422)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,320.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.34

Record

74%

102820-36477 (139297)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$1,078.2

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

71256-54324 (125580)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$606.24

Value

$715.8

PnL

+$109.56

Record

65%

4152-2267 (6419)

Both legs:

Down$267.1637.3¢+$448.64

Up$339.0830.3¢-$339.08

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$386.3

Value

$899.61

PnL

+$513.31

Record

57%

12721-9433 (22154)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$413.22

Value

$514.93

PnL

+$101.71

Record

54%

14517-12356 (26873)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$115.81

Value

$277.61

PnL

+$161.8

Record

54%

15411-13295 (28706)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Invested

$112

Value

—

PnL

-$112

Record

73%

95045-35673 (130718)

devonpollCTR

Invested

$154.87

Value

—

PnL

-$153.07

Record

51%

20252-19386 (39638)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$46.83

Value

$98.37

PnL

+$51.54

Record

63%

52202-31146 (83348)

Both legs:

Down$12.9513.2¢+$85.42

Up$33.8822.1¢-$33.88

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.86

Value

$73.4

PnL

-$29.46

Record

66%

126492-65134 (191626)

Both legs:

Down$56.0776.4¢+$17.33

Up$46.7963.8¢-$46.79

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$63.46

Value

—

PnL

-$63.46

Record

35%

18964-35964 (54928)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$170.3

Value

$89.99

PnL

-$33.55

Record

64%

24117-13303 (37420)

GoodRecipientCTR<$100

Invested

$60.44

Value

—

PnL

-$60.44

Record

44%

631-818 (1449)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$77.89

Value

—

PnL

-$77.89

Record

64%

40361-23086 (63447)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$57.35

Value

$80.69

PnL

+$23.34

Record

56%

58367-45027 (103394)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$43.04

Value

$40.67

PnL

-$2.37

Record

58%

60798-44388 (105186)

Both legs:

Invested

$28.75

Value

$43.26

PnL

+$14.51

Record

62%

43999-27015 (71014)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$45.65

Value

—

PnL

-$45.65

Record

55%

18070-14671 (32741)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$27.19

Value

—

PnL

-$27.19

Record

52%

90849-85392 (176241)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 24 top traders (54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x02b7b8d3...5b0b72

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793463300

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Down — $8.7K

+$4.6K

CrouchPredictions

Down — $2.3K

+$136.6

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

asabovesobelow2

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $1.3K

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

wowitsamazing

Down — $899.61

+$513.31

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