Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares14,918

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares986

Combined PnL-$563.76

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Upavg 53.1¢	$4.9K	$6.4K	+$1.5K	50% 7900-7930 (15830)
NIULAI4	Upavg 65.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$488.04	77% 9497-2916 (12413)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$331.86	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$910.21	$1.5K	+$607.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$275.47	—	-$275.47
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 65¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$737.87	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.6¢	$949.66	$973.28	+$23.61	93% 23963-1799 (25762)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 53.7¢	$868.47	$892.11	+$23.64	57% 10453-7836 (18289)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 73.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$265.63	69% 1657-757 (2414)
Atomforge	Upavg 54.5¢	$496.64	$780.16	+$283.52	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$331.38	$321.97	-$9.41	58% 6757-4993 (11750)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$171.02	$321.97	+$150.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$160.36	—	-$160.36
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR	Downavg 50.7¢	$281.8	—	-$281.8	46% 457-526 (983)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 59.6¢	$187.29	$219	+$31.71	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 27.7¢	$132.21	$101.97	-$30.23	54% 14514-12353 (26867)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.7¢	$79.83	—	-$79.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$52.38	$101.97	+$49.59
wowitsamazingCTR	Downavg 53¢	$125.25	—	-$125.25	57% 12718-9428 (22146)
DE devonpoll	Upavg 58.4¢	$115.2	$197.4	+$82.2	51% 20241-19372 (39613)
GO GoodRecipientARB<$100	Downavg 38¢	$70.99	$89.99	+$19	44% 629-814 (1443)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$33	$89.99	+$57
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$38	—	-$38
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 63.5¢	$90.05	$115	+$24.95	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$37.84	$75.74	+$37.9	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$22.93	$75.74	+$52.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.3¢	$14.91	—	-$14.91
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$56.54	—	-$56.54	58% 51142-37272 (88414)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$47.73	$63.31	+$15.58	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$33.79	$49.09	+$15.3	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
AA aaa221CTR	Downavg 50.5¢	$194.05	—	-$40.1	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$23.5	—	-$23.5	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$28.02	—	-$28.02	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$8.55	—	-$8.55	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
IM imoore-40<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	77% 72-22 (94)

RLWG

Invested

$4,856.61

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

7900-7930 (15830)

NIULAI4

Invested

$1,155.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$488.04

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,185.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$331.86

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

Both legs:

Up$910.2160¢+$607.33

Down$275.4724¢-$275.47

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,456.52

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$737.87

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

hoodquant

Invested

$949.66

Value

$973.28

PnL

+$23.61

Record

93%

23963-1799 (25762)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$868.47

Value

$892.11

PnL

+$23.64

Record

57%

10453-7836 (18289)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$1,152.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$265.63

Record

69%

1657-757 (2414)

Atomforge

Invested

$496.64

Value

$780.16

PnL

+$283.52

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$331.38

Value

$321.97

PnL

-$9.41

Record

58%

6757-4993 (11750)

Both legs:

Up$171.0253.1¢+$150.94

Down$160.3653.3¢-$160.36

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR

Down

Invested

$281.8

Value

—

PnL

-$281.8

Record

46%

457-526 (983)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$187.29

Value

$219

PnL

+$31.71

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.21

Value

$101.97

PnL

-$30.23

Record

54%

14514-12353 (26867)

Both legs:

Down$79.8327.7¢-$79.83

Up$52.3851.4¢+$49.59

wowitsamazingCTR

Down

Invested

$125.25

Value

—

PnL

-$125.25

Record

57%

12718-9428 (22146)

devonpoll

Invested

$115.2

Value

$197.4

PnL

+$82.2

Record

51%

20241-19372 (39613)

GoodRecipientARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.99

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$19

Record

44%

629-814 (1443)

Both legs:

Up$3336.7¢+$57

Down$3838¢-$38

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$90.05

Value

$115

PnL

+$24.95

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$37.84

Value

$75.74

PnL

+$37.9

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

Both legs:

Up$22.9330.3¢+$52.81

Down$14.9126.3¢-$14.91

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.54

Value

—

PnL

-$56.54

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$47.73

Value

$63.31

PnL

+$15.58

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$33.79

Value

$49.09

PnL

+$15.3

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

aaa221CTR

Down

Invested

$194.05

Value

—

PnL

-$40.1

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.5

Value

—

PnL

-$23.5

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.02

Value

—

PnL

-$28.02

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.55

Value

—

PnL

-$8.55

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

imoore-40<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

77%

72-22 (94)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc1da6f80...2b8d1e

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793461500

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Up — $6.4K

+$1.5K

NIULAI4

Up — $1.6K

+$488.04

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$331.86

uninformedfloww

Up — $2.2K

+$737.87

hoodquant

Up — $973.28

+$23.61

trdyugiolkw

Up — $892.11

+$23.64

asabovesobelow2

Up — $1.4K

+$265.63

Atomforge

Up — $780.16

+$283.52

peepeepoopoo24

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.41

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

CTR

Down — $0

-$281.8

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