Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 68%
2 arb excluded
$12.0K
-$643.78
Smart Money Signal
20 of 29 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Upavg 96.1¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$53.41 | 74% 102799-36473 (139272) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 39.9¢ | $963.63 | $1.3K | +$316.2 | 56% 14686-11561 (26247) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 52.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$15.6 | 57% 10453-7836 (18289) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$116.82 | 69% 1657-757 (2414) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.8 | 93% 23963-1799 (25762) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $894.12 | $1.1K | +$179.88 | 77% 9497-2916 (12413) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 60.9¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 54% 15410-13289 (28699) |
RL RLWG | Upavg 66.4¢ | $664.95 | $988.05 | +$323.1 | 50% 7900-7930 (15830) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 66.1¢ | $401.98 | $414.31 | +$12.33 | 65% 4143-2256 (6399) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 63.1¢ | $469.7 | — | -$469.7 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $293.61 | $319.59 | +$25.98 | 58% 6757-4993 (11750) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.9¢ | $134.01 | $319.59 | +$185.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.3¢ | $159.6 | — | -$159.6 | |
 ohioism | Upavg 55.1¢ | $184.74 | $261.72 | +$76.98 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Downavg 46.1¢ | $156.14 | — | -$156.14 | 58% 60787-44362 (105149) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 52.8¢ | $105.49 | $174.09 | +$68.6 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Downavg 51¢ | $115.67 | — | -$115.67 | 35% 18950-35949 (54899) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 54.7¢ | $59.45 | $108.6 | +$49.15 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $100.2 | $65.22 | -$34.98 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.6¢ | $65.1 | — | -$65.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.8¢ | $35.1 | $65.22 | +$30.12 | |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Upavg 35.1¢ | $53.04 | $151 | +$97.96 | 73% 95045-35671 (130716) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $51.25 | $64 | +$12.75 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $59.77 | $80.45 | +$20.68 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $49.85 | $110.53 | +$60.69 | 46% 457-526 (983) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $24.05 | $37.58 | +$13.53 | 54% 14514-12353 (26867) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $41.79 | — | -$41.79 | 57% 12718-9428 (22146) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $62.52 | — | -$36.92 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $30.16 | — | -$30.16 | 56% 8126-6271 (14397) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,153.99
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$53.41
Record
74%
102799-36473 (139272)
Invested
$963.63
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$316.2
Record
56%
14686-11561 (26247)
Invested
$1,253.89
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$15.6
Record
57%
10453-7836 (18289)
Invested
$1,050.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$116.82
Record
69%
1657-757 (2414)
Invested
$1,118.64
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.8
Record
93%
23963-1799 (25762)
NIULAI4Invested
$894.12
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$179.88
Record
77%
9497-2916 (12413)
Invested
$1,277.75
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
54%
15410-13289 (28699)
Invested
$664.95
Value
$988.05
PnL
+$323.1
Record
50%
7900-7930 (15830)
AtomforgeInvested
$401.98
Value
$414.31
PnL
+$12.33
Record
65%
4143-2256 (6399)
Invested
$469.7
Value
—
PnL
-$469.7
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Invested
$293.61
Value
$319.59
PnL
+$25.98
Record
58%
6757-4993 (11750)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$184.74
Value
$261.72
PnL
+$76.98
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
Invested
$156.14
Value
—
PnL
-$156.14
Record
58%
60787-44362 (105149)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$105.49
Value
$174.09
PnL
+$68.6
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Invested
$115.67
Value
—
PnL
-$115.67
Record
35%
18950-35949 (54899)
Invested
$59.45
Value
$108.6
PnL
+$49.15
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$100.2
Value
$65.22
PnL
-$34.98
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.04
Value
$151
PnL
+$97.96
Record
73%
95045-35671 (130716)
Invested
$51.25
Value
$64
PnL
+$12.75
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
Invested
$59.77
Value
$80.45
PnL
+$20.68
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$110.53
PnL
+$60.69
Record
46%
457-526 (983)
Invested
$24.05
Value
$37.58
PnL
+$13.53
Record
54%
14514-12353 (26867)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$41.79
Value
—
PnL
-$41.79
Record
57%
12718-9428 (22146)
Invested
$62.52
Value
—
PnL
-$36.92
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$30.16
Value
—
PnL
-$30.16
Record
56%
8126-6271 (14397)
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