Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$811.83

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,655

Combined PnL+$353.13

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,323

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$4.71	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 77.2¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$462.09	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$601.22	$1.9K	+$1.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.2¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 51.4¢	$969.31	$1.1K	+$175.5	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 59.5¢	$840.8	—	-$840.8	57% 10453-7836 (18289)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$269.32	$264.94	-$4.38	54% 11100-9462 (20562)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$88.64	$264.94	+$176.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$180.68	—	-$180.68
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 60¢	$201.35	$175	-$26.35	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
GO GoodRecipientCTR	Upavg 62.8¢	$117.18	—	-$117.18	44% 629-814 (1443)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$46	$98.28	+$52.28	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$82.35	—	-$82.35	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 63¢	$88.52	$85.94	-$2.58	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$87.03	—	-$87.03	54% 14514-12353 (26867)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$50.98	$58.02	+$7.04	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
BoneOhioARB<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$207.01	$25	-$182.01	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.5¢	$184.51	—	-$184.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 90¢	$22.5	$25	+$2.5
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 47¢	$45.1	$40.75	-$4.35	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$21.6	$40.75	+$19.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$23.5	—	-$23.5
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 12.8¢	$24.06	—	-$24.06	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49¢	$34.3	$70	+$35.7	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$73.83	—	-$59.23	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 34.8¢	$49.2	$141.34	+$92.14	57% 12718-9428 (22146)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 97¢	$35.64	$30.31	-$5.33	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$37.96	$33.99	-$3.96	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 90¢	$33.12	$25	-$8.12	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 97¢	$17	$15.21	-$1.79	69% 1657-757 (2414)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$9.69	$19	+$9.31	58% 51142-37272 (88414)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 26.8¢	$8.96	$33.42	+$24.47	46% 457-526 (983)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	54% 1619-1372 (2991)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,708.32

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$4.71

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$2,324.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$462.09

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Both legs:

Down$601.2232.3¢+$1.3K

Up$1,72377.2¢$-1.7K

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$969.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$175.5

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$840.8

Value

—

PnL

-$840.8

Record

57%

10453-7836 (18289)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$269.32

Value

$264.94

PnL

-$4.38

Record

54%

11100-9462 (20562)

Both legs:

Down$88.6433.5¢+$176.3

Up$180.6863.3¢-$180.68

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$201.35

Value

$175

PnL

-$26.35

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

GoodRecipientCTR

Invested

$117.18

Value

—

PnL

-$117.18

Record

44%

629-814 (1443)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$46

Value

$98.28

PnL

+$52.28

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$82.35

Value

—

PnL

-$82.35

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$88.52

Value

$85.94

PnL

-$2.58

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$87.03

Value

—

PnL

-$87.03

Record

54%

14514-12353 (26867)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$50.98

Value

$58.02

PnL

+$7.04

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

BoneOhioARB<$100

Invested

$207.01

Value

$25

PnL

-$182.01

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

Both legs:

Up$184.5161.5¢-$184.51

Down$22.590¢+$2.5

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$45.1

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$4.35

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

Both legs:

Down$21.653¢+$19.15

Up$23.547¢-$23.5

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$24.06

Value

—

PnL

-$24.06

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$34.3

Value

$70

PnL

+$35.7

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$73.83

Value

—

PnL

-$59.23

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$49.2

Value

$141.34

PnL

+$92.14

Record

57%

12718-9428 (22146)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$35.64

Value

$30.31

PnL

-$5.33

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$37.96

Value

$33.99

PnL

-$3.96

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$33.12

Value

$25

PnL

-$8.12

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$17

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$1.79

Record

69%

1657-757 (2414)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$9.69

Value

$19

PnL

+$9.31

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Down

Invested

$8.96

Value

$33.42

PnL

+$24.47

Record

46%

457-526 (983)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

1619-1372 (2991)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0473a5c0...a1a615

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793457900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $4.7K

+$4.71

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$462.09

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

trdyugiolkw

Up — $0

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $175

-$26.35

GoodRecipient

CTR

Up — $0

-$117.18

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $98.28

+$52.28

asdaefef

CTR

Up — $0

-$82.35

ohioism

Down — $85.94

-$2.58

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