Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Up 74%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$45.35
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84¢ | $647.52 | $555.24 | -$92.29 | 56% 14686-11561 (26247) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 82.9¢ | $190.75 | $187.01 | -$3.73 | 54% 11100-9462 (20562) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $156.91 | $145.3 | -$11.61 | 57% 10453-7836 (18289) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.3¢ | $102.2 | $145.3 | +$43.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.8¢ | $54.71 | — | -$54.71 | |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 83¢ | $91.74 | $110.53 | +$18.79 | 54% 14514-12353 (26867) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $74.73 | $90 | +$15.27 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $73.65 | $91.54 | +$17.89 | 51% 20241-19372 (39613) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $64.23 | $79.99 | +$15.77 | 64% 58692-33276 (91968) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $36.72 | $40 | +$3.28 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $36.8 | $40 | +$3.2 | 58% 60787-44362 (105149) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $28.28 | $30 | +$1.72 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $50 | +$23.5 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $30 | +$8.1 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 91.5¢ | $19.37 | $21.16 | +$1.79 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.7¢ | $16.94 | — | -$16.94 | 73% 95045-35671 (130716) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $14.5 | — | -$14.5 | 58% 51142-37272 (88414) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 76.1¢ | $13.75 | $18.06 | +$4.31 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 74% 102799-36473 (139272) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.3¢ | $18.87 | — | -$18.87 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $5.46 | $7.28 | +$1.82 | 65% 4143-2256 (6399) |
IM imoore-40CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 77% 72-22 (94) |
Invested
$647.52
Value
$555.24
PnL
-$92.29
Record
56%
14686-11561 (26247)
Invested
$190.75
Value
$187.01
PnL
-$3.73
Record
54%
11100-9462 (20562)
Invested
$156.91
Value
$145.3
PnL
-$11.61
Record
57%
10453-7836 (18289)
Both legs:
Invested
$91.74
Value
$110.53
PnL
+$18.79
Record
54%
14514-12353 (26867)
Invested
$74.73
Value
$90
PnL
+$15.27
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$73.65
Value
$91.54
PnL
+$17.89
Record
51%
20241-19372 (39613)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$64.23
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$15.77
Record
64%
58692-33276 (91968)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$36.72
Value
$40
PnL
+$3.28
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$3.2
Record
58%
60787-44362 (105149)
ohioism<$100Invested
$28.28
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.72
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$23.5
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$21.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$8.1
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$19.37
Value
$21.16
PnL
+$1.79
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
Invested
$16.94
Value
—
PnL
-$16.94
Record
73%
95045-35671 (130716)
Invested
$14.5
Value
—
PnL
-$14.5
Record
58%
51142-37272 (88414)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$18.06
PnL
+$4.31
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
74%
102799-36473 (139272)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$18.87
Value
—
PnL
-$18.87
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$7.28
PnL
+$1.82
Record
65%
4143-2256 (6399)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
77%
72-22 (94)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Up — $555.24
thesidehustle
Up — $187.01
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Up — $110.53
aaa221
Up — $90
devonpoll
Up — $91.54
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $79.99
MayorMamdani
Up — $40
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $40
ohioism
Up — $30