Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Signal

19 of 23 top traders (83%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,182

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Down4 traders

Total Value$283.08

Total Shares283

Combined PnL+$189.01

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$240.06	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$1.7K	$3.9K	+$2.2K
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$337.04	77% 9493-2907 (12400)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$904.08	$2.4K	+$1.5K
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	-$900.58	69% 1651-755 (2406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$947	$2.0K	+$1.0K
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 68.3¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$573.77	57% 10449-7833 (18282)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.3¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.2¢	$490.71	$2.1K	+$1.6K
RL RLWGARB<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$770.38	50% 7896-7923 (15819)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$444.56	—	-$444.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$794.96	$2.0K	+$1.2K
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$610.84	$627.81	+$16.98	54% 11081-9455 (20536)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.8¢	$442.92	—	-$442.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.7¢	$167.92	$627.81	+$459.89
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$686.58	$686.95	+$0.37	65% 4132-2253 (6385)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$425.9	—	-$425.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$260.68	$686.95	+$426.27
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Downavg 34¢	$604.41	$1.1K	+$599.2	57% 12716-9424 (22140)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$380.37	$1.1K	+$739.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.4¢	$158.48	—	-$140.08
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 67.8¢	$449.28	—	-$449.28	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$477.2	$780.76	+$303.56	54% 14512-12347 (26859)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$404.57	$780.76	+$376.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$72.63	—	-$72.63
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 63.8¢	$209.47	—	-$191.07	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 77.5¢	$210.45	—	-$210.45	58% 60765-44349 (105114)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Upavg 64.4¢	$113.98	—	-$113.98	62% 43966-26982 (70948)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$91.38	$120.56	+$29.18	54% 15410-13287 (28697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$80.86	—	-$80.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.7¢	$10.52	$120.56	+$110.04
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Upavg 72¢	$126.75	—	-$126.75	58% 6757-4993 (11750)
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 74.6¢	$172.35	—	-$152.1	51% 20230-19367 (39597)
HO hoodquantCTR	Upavg 98.4¢	$144.54	—	-$144.54	93% 23943-1796 (25739)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Upavg 90.1¢	$77.51	—	-$77.51	53% 3708-3225 (6933)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$69.35	—	-$69.35	56% 58323-44993 (103316)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$81.85	—	-$81.85	35% 18938-35934 (54872)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 84.8¢	$95.83	—	-$72.66	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 79¢	$49.07	—	-$49.07	64% 40317-23061 (63378)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$69.01	$86.8	+$17.79	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.9¢	$26.81	—	-$26.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$42.2	$86.8	+$44.6
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$54.38	$65	+$10.62	52% 90788-85318 (176106)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$34.3	—	-$34.3	58% 38135-27322 (65457)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$3,658.74

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$240.06

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

Both legs:

Up$1,959.1267.6¢$-2.0K

Down$1,699.6243.6¢+$2.2K

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$2,758.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$337.04

Record

77%

9493-2907 (12400)

Both legs:

Up$1,854.6471.1¢$-1.9K

Down$904.0837.3¢+$1.5K

asabovesobelow2ARB<$100

Invested

$2,873

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$900.58

Record

69%

1651-755 (2406)

Both legs:

Up$1,92673.1¢$-1.9K

Down$94748¢+$1.0K

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$1,541.72

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$573.77

Record

57%

10449-7833 (18282)

Both legs:

Up$1,051.0168.3¢$-1.1K

Down$490.7123.2¢+$1.6K

RLWGARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,239.53

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$770.38

Record

50%

7896-7923 (15819)

Both legs:

Up$444.5655.9¢-$444.56

Down$794.9639.6¢+$1.2K

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$610.84

Value

$627.81

PnL

+$16.98

Record

54%

11081-9455 (20536)

Both legs:

Up$442.9265.8¢-$442.92

Down$167.9226.7¢+$459.89

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$686.58

Value

$686.95

PnL

+$0.37

Record

65%

4132-2253 (6385)

Both legs:

Up$425.971.1¢-$425.9

Down$260.6837.9¢+$426.27

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$604.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$599.2

Record

57%

12716-9424 (22140)

Both legs:

Down$380.3734¢+$739.28

Up$158.4866.4¢-$140.08

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$449.28

Value

—

PnL

-$449.28

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$477.2

Value

$780.76

PnL

+$303.56

Record

54%

14512-12347 (26859)

Both legs:

Down$404.5751.8¢+$376.19

Up$72.6343.5¢-$72.63

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$209.47

Value

—

PnL

-$191.07

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$210.45

Value

—

PnL

-$210.45

Record

58%

60765-44349 (105114)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Invested

$113.98

Value

—

PnL

-$113.98

Record

62%

43966-26982 (70948)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$91.38

Value

$120.56

PnL

+$29.18

Record

54%

15410-13287 (28697)

Both legs:

Up$80.8648.6¢-$80.86

Down$10.528.7¢+$110.04

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Invested

$126.75

Value

—

PnL

-$126.75

Record

58%

6757-4993 (11750)

devonpollCTR

Invested

$172.35

Value

—

PnL

-$152.1

Record

51%

20230-19367 (39597)

hoodquantCTR

Invested

$144.54

Value

—

PnL

-$144.54

Record

93%

23943-1796 (25739)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$77.51

Value

—

PnL

-$77.51

Record

53%

3708-3225 (6933)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$69.35

Value

—

PnL

-$69.35

Record

56%

58323-44993 (103316)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$81.85

Value

—

PnL

-$81.85

Record

35%

18938-35934 (54872)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$95.83

Value

—

PnL

-$72.66

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$49.07

Value

—

PnL

-$49.07

Record

64%

40317-23061 (63378)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.01

Value

$86.8

PnL

+$17.79

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.38

Value

$65

PnL

+$10.62

Record

52%

90788-85318 (176106)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

—

PnL

-$34.3

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 23 top traders (83%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3123662b...83d4b4

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793455200

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

asabovesobelow2

Arbitrage — excluded

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

wowitsamazing

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded