Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Up 65%
1 arb excluded
$926.97
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Upavg 51.4¢ | $716.36 | — | -$716.36 | 57% 10449-7833 (18282) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 38.7¢ | $454.4 | — | -$454.4 | 56% 14669-11554 (26223) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Upavg 70.5¢ | $210.35 | — | -$210.35 | 54% 11081-9455 (20536) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 68.9¢ | $153.35 | — | -$153.35 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.9¢ | $79.08 | — | -$79.08 | 54% 14512-12347 (26859) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 46.7¢ | $320.04 | $685.33 | +$365.29 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $94.12 | — | -$94.12 | 74% 102693-36455 (139148) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $45.3 | — | -$45.3 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $65.79 | $51.56 | -$14.23 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $23.74 | $51.56 | +$27.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.7¢ | $42.05 | — | -$42.05 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $41.2 | $59.97 | +$18.77 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $38.13 | — | -$38.13 | 62% 43966-26982 (70948) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.8¢ | $18.8 | — | -$18.8 | 56% 58323-44993 (103316) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $24.6 | $50 | +$25.4 | 58% 51123-37260 (88383) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $40.85 | $35.8 | -$5.05 | 66% 126396-65094 (191490) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $23.7 | — | -$23.7 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $15.5 | — | -$15.5 | 64% 40317-23061 (63378) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $13.73 | $13.87 | +$0.14 | 93% 23943-1796 (25739) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $9.88 | — | -$9.88 | 65% 4132-2253 (6385) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $9.15 | $15.43 | +$6.28 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $6.95 | $10 | +$3.05 | 50% 7896-7923 (15819) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $74.7 | — | -$39.55 | 51% 20230-19367 (39597) |
IM imoore-40<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 76% 67-21 (88) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 69% 1651-755 (2406) |
Invested
$716.36
Value
—
PnL
-$716.36
Record
57%
10449-7833 (18282)
Invested
$454.4
Value
—
PnL
-$454.4
Record
56%
14669-11554 (26223)
Invested
$210.35
Value
—
PnL
-$210.35
Record
54%
11081-9455 (20536)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$153.35
Value
—
PnL
-$153.35
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Invested
$79.08
Value
—
PnL
-$79.08
Record
54%
14512-12347 (26859)
Invested
$320.04
Value
$685.33
PnL
+$365.29
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$94.12
Value
—
PnL
-$94.12
Record
74%
102693-36455 (139148)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$45.3
Value
—
PnL
-$45.3
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
Invested
$65.79
Value
$51.56
PnL
-$14.23
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.2
Value
$59.97
PnL
+$18.77
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$38.13
Value
—
PnL
-$38.13
Record
62%
43966-26982 (70948)
Invested
$18.8
Value
—
PnL
-$18.8
Record
56%
58323-44993 (103316)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$50
PnL
+$25.4
Record
58%
51123-37260 (88383)
Invested
$40.85
Value
$35.8
PnL
-$5.05
Record
66%
126396-65094 (191490)
Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$23.7
Value
—
PnL
-$23.7
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$15.5
Value
—
PnL
-$15.5
Record
64%
40317-23061 (63378)
Invested
$13.73
Value
$13.87
PnL
+$0.14
Record
93%
23943-1796 (25739)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$9.88
Value
—
PnL
-$9.88
Record
65%
4132-2253 (6385)
Invested
$9.15
Value
$15.43
PnL
+$6.28
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.05
Record
50%
7896-7923 (15819)
Invested
$74.7
Value
—
PnL
-$39.55
Record
51%
20230-19367 (39597)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
76%
67-21 (88)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
69%
1651-755 (2406)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $685.33
BoneOhio
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $59.97